Cement Sector Q1 Results Preview - Difficult Quarter For The Industry: Nirmal Bang

Nirmal Bang Report

Demand to pick up pace post monsoon:

Q1 FY25 saw demand de-growth of ~6% due to general elections, extreme heat and labour shortage. With the onset of monsoon in Q2 FY25, we think that demand in H1 FY25 will be lacklustre with no material improvement in the pricing mechanism.

However, the full-year demand is forecasted to range between 8.5%-9%, driven by infrastructure-led demand and steady demand from the Housing and Commercial segments in H2 FY25.

Rising pace of capacity additions

The cement sector will increase capacity by 63-70 million tonnes per annum between FY25 and FY26, with ~33-35 mtpa in FY25 alone. Capacity utilisation is predicted to increase to 71% in FY25 from 70% in FY24, driven by higher cement volume.

According to us, the West region will maintain the highest utilisation levels at 95%+ followed by the North at 80%+, the Central at 78%+, the East at 70%+ and the South at 60%+ in FY25. In FY26, the trend is expected to stay rather consistent.

Room for further consolidation

In FY24, the top two players acquired ~20 mtpa of cement capacity. This was consistent with our predictions, which had anticipated increased competition for market share. There is still room for consolidation in the near-to-medium term given that large companies' aggressive medium-term capacity plans are unlikely to be met organically. Consolidation will bring pricing rationality in the medium term.

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