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HDFC Securities Report
Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd. stock has rallied ~35% and has outperformed the Sensex by ~26% over the last three months, driven by improving auto fuel marketing margins as Brent crude price declined by ~20% to $ 76/barrel of oil over the same period and strong refining margins as diesel and jet fuel crack spreads averaged $ 23-24/bbl.
We downgrade BPCL to a 'Reduce' from a 'Buy', with a target price of Rs 475/share, owing to the risk of
lower auto-fuel marketing margins because of either a bounce-back in crude oil price or retail price cuts ahead of general elections and
moderation in refining margins.
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