Automobiles Q3 Results Preview - Strong Performance Aided By Festive Cheers: Prabhudas Lilladher

Prabhudas Lilladher Report

We expect Q3 FY24 to show strong revenue and Ebitda improvement with 17%/36% YoY growth respectively, given strong double digit volumes growth by two wheeler original equipment manufacturer and continued growth in the private vehicle segment, additionally helped by operating leverage and benign commodity prices.

In Q3 FY24, auto industry witnessed overall strong double digit volumes of 17% on the back of strong growth in domestic two-wheelers and three wheeler. For our OEM coverage universe, we expect

1. aggregate revenue to grow by plus 20% YoY (including Jaguar Land Rover; plus 16% excluding JLR) owing to sharp rise in volumes plus better mix and

2. Ebitda margin to expand ~150 basis points YoY (including JLR) led by lower commodity cost and superior product mix. Commodity costs to remain benign and will continue to aid margins in the coming quarters.

For our coverage universe we roll-forward our estimates by one quarter and change our FY24-26E Ebitda estimates in -3% to plus 9% range. Top picks are Tata Motors Ltd., Maruti Suzuki India Ltd., and Divgi Torquetransfer Systems Ltd.

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