Auto Sales In June 2024 - Wholesales Remain A Mixed Bag: Motilal Oswal

Motilal Oswal Report

In two-wheelers, while Hero MotoCorp Ltd.’s numbers were ahead of our estimates, TVS Motor Ltd./Bajaj Auto Ltd./Royal Enfield’s numbers remained in line. In passenger vehicles, while domestic dispatches of Maruti Suzuki India Ltd./Mahindra and Mahindra Ltd. were in line, exports of Maruti Suzuki surprised.

Tata Motors Ltd. disappointed as the company focused on lean channel inventory against the backdrop of weak retail sales. In commerical vehicels, both Tata Motors and Ashok Leyland’s wholesales remained in line and declined by a single digit YoY, while VECV surprised with double-digit YoY growth.

The CV industry’s demand held up well in Q1 FY25, and we continue to expect the industry to post mid-single-digit growth for FY25.

In tractors, both M&M and Escorts Kubota Ltd.’s sales were ahead of estimates, with the progress of monsoon being the key monitorable.

We expect PVs and CVs to post 6% volume CAGR each over FY24-26. We anticipate the two-wheeler industry to clock a 9% volume CAGR during the same period.

In Auto OEMs, Maruti Suzuki and Ashok Leyland are our top picks.

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