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Dolat Capital Report
Ambuja Cements Ltd.’s Q2 FY25 results reported beat on estimates.
We expect revenue/Ebitda/adjusted profit after tax compound annual growth rate of 16.3%/22.0%/19.9% over FY24-27E, led by 13.0%/23.0%/17.0% volume growth and -5.2%/2.0%/0.0% realization growth in FY25E/FY26E/FY27E.
We have revised our FY25E/FY26E Ebitda estimates by +2.2%/+0.5% factoring higher volume and realization/tonne, partially offset by opex/tonne and also introduce FY27E.
Following a ~16% correction in the stock price since our last update, we are upgrading our rating to 'Accumulate' from Sell with revised target price of Rs 626 (15.5 times consolidated FY27E EV/Ebitda and 50% Capital WIP of FY27E) considering better than industry volume growth besides improvement in profitability.
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