With a rise in domestic solar installations, capacity expansion plans and potential trade barriers affecting global competitors, Indian solar manufacturers are set for substantial growth.
Last week, Premier Energies Ltd. filed a draft red herring prospectus for an initial public offering. The company projects India’s solar module capacity could reach 150 GW and cell capacity 60 GW by fiscal 2028, up from 72 GW and 8.1 GW, respectively in fiscal 2024.
Key listed players like Adani Enterprises Ltd., Tata Power Co., Rayzon Solar Pvt., Vikram Solar Ltd., and Goldi Solar Pvt., as well as soon to be public firms such as Waaree Energies and Premier Energies, are set to gain from this boost.
There are mainly two factors that will help drive opportunity for the Indian solar manufacturing sector:
Domestic Factors
India’s push to expand renewable energy, especially solar, is driving industry growth. From fiscal 2018 to fiscal 2024, installed solar capacity grew at 24.8% annually, with 15 GW added in the previous fiscal. Premier Energies forecasts a similar 24.7% annual growth through financial year 2028.
Though self-sufficient in solar module capacity, India still relies on imports for solar cells. To reduce this, major players are expanding capacity. A joint report by Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis and JMK Research & Analytics projects that import dependency will fall from 51% in fiscal 2022 to about 6% by fiscal 2028 as domestic production scales up.
Global Factors
As per Bloomberg, the global solar manufacturing landscape is shifting as the US prepares to impose significant tariffs on Southeast Asia’s leading solar producers outside of China, including Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, and Cambodia. This opens up export opportunities for India.
India’s solar module exports to the US are expected to rise until financial year 2026 and may only decline after financial year 2028, according to the joint report by IEEFA and JMK Research. While exports to the US and EU may decrease beyond fiscal 2028, India could see higher demand from markets like Africa and Latin America, the report said.
Capacity Expansion Plans
Top Indian solar manufacturers have unveiled ambitious plans to bolster their solar module and solar cell production capabilities and establish a comprehensive manufacturing ecosystem, aiming for majority of completion by fiscal 2025.
If these targets are met, India's solar module manufacturing capacity could expand by at least 40 GW during the financial year, and domestic solar cell manufacturing capacity could increase by at least 19 GW in coming years, as per NDTV Profit calculations.
The current landscape of India's solar manufacturing sector:
Indian Solar Module Industry
India’s solar module manufacturing capacity has surged from 4.2 GW in financial year 2017 to approximately 72 GW by the end of fiscal 2024. While the government says the country’s module manufacturing is now self-sufficient, India still imports solar modules due to insufficient domestic solar cell production capacity.
There are around 100 solar module producers in the country, with a total capacity of 72 GW as of fiscal 2024, as per the All India Solar Manufacturer's Association. The top 10 players hold over 68% market share in India, based on installed capacity. Most of these players are listed on Indian exchanges or are soon to be listed.
The top five such manufacturers include Waaree Energies, Renew Power, Tata Power, Premier Energies and Adani Enterprises' Mundra Solar.
Indian Solar Cell Industry
Solar cells are crucial for manufacturing solar modules, and India's current capacity falls short of domestic demand. Growth in solar cell production is essential for the industry’s expansion. Premier Energies' DRHP reports that India's solar cell installed capacity reached 8.1 GW as of fiscal 2024, up from 1 GW in fiscal 2017.
There are currently very few integrated solar cell and module manufacturing plants in India. Of the current top 10 solar module makers in the country, only three companies have integrated facilities—Adani Enterprises' Mundra Solar, soon to be listed Premier Energies and Tata Power Solar.
Disclaimer: NDTV Profit is a subsidiary of AMG Media Networks Limited, an Adani Group Company.
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