Forward planning is also an aspect of electoral politics. Although Indian election results have repeatedly proven to be unpredictable, political parties in Maharashtra have already begun strategising for post-poll scenarios.
Considering defections and the large number of independent candidates, many political pundits believe that the Vidhan Sabha polls will likely result in a hung Assembly, with no single party or alliance achieving an absolute majority. In such a scenario, new political alignments may emerge, and the possibility of rival parties coming together cannot be ruled out. A widely discussed question this election season is: Will the Bharatiya Janata Party and Uddhav Thackeray align again?
The BJP's backstage strategists have been keenly observing the discord between the Shiv Sena (UBT) and Indian National Congress, which surfaced during seat-sharing discussions and over the question of who would become the chief minister if the Maha Vikas Aghadi comes to power.
The BJP could capitalise on the tension between the two parties, much like Sharad Pawar did with the discord between the BJP and the undivided Shiv Sena in 2019. The magic number is 145 out of a total of 288 assembly seats to secure the government. If the BJP falls short of this number, they could consider approaching an unhappy Shiv Sena (UBT). The BJP might offer the deputy CM’s post, more ministries, and cabinet positions at the Centre to the Shiv Sena (UBT) if it agrees to return to the National Democratic Alliance.
What the backstage players need now for their advance planning are mediators who could break the ice. Such a mediator could be a godman, an industrialist or a social activist. From Chandraswami to Bhaiyuji Maharaj, godmen have often played a role in the political arena. With both now deceased, who will step into their shoes to facilitate a political breakthrough? There are a couple of industrialists who are mutual friends of Uddhav Thackeray and top BJP leaders. Will they be roped in?
There are a few politicians in both camps who have strong connections with leaders in rival parties. Union Minister Nitin Gadkari is one such name in the BJP whom Uddhav Thackeray admires. However, given the power dynamics within the BJP, he is unlikely to be involved in the government formation process. Vinod Tawde is another potential emissary who could represent the BJP to Uddhav. From Shiv Sena (UBT), Member of Parliament Anil Desai is a leader with friends across party lines.
Whatever picture emerges after the election results on Nov. 23, one thing is clear: ideologies and past rivalries are no longer constraints for parties seeking to form the government. Political observers in the state are bracing themselves for another roller-coaster ride.
Jitendra Dixit is contributing editor of NDTV and author of the book Bombay After Ayodhya.
Disclaimer: The views expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of NDTV Profit or its editorial team.
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