Lok Sabha Election 2024: The Changing Caste Dynamics In India

As India prepares for phase two of its Lok Sabha polls on April 26, the debate on whether caste is still relevant in Indian politics has been reignited, with the aggressive caste pitch of the INDIA bloc, led by the Indian National Congress party. 

Caste is cast in stone in Indian politics, like it or not, accept it or not. A majority of Indians prefer political leaders from their own caste, tribe or religion, according to a 2018 study by Azim Premji University and Centre for the Study of Developing Societies. Across eight states—Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh and Telangana—55% of Indians would prefer a political leader from their own caste and religion.

This indicates how identity politics plays a significant role in state and general elections. 43% in Andhra, 57% in Bihar, 65% in MP, 54% in Maharashtra, 62% in Rajasthan, 52% in Jharkhand, 61% in Chhattisgarh and 48% in Telangana prefer a political leader from their own caste and religion.

63% of non-literate, 56% school educated and 47% college educated voters prefer politicians of their own caste. Only 9-10% across education levels prefer a different caste leader. As the education level increases, the respondents saying caste makes no difference increases. 27% non-literates, 34% school educated and 44% college educated said that caste of a politician makes no difference. 

As per Census 2011, there are 79.8% Hindus, 14.2% Muslims, while 6% belong to other religions like Christianity, Sikhism, Jainism, etc. Among Hindus, 16.6% belong to Scheduled Caste, while 8.6% belong to Scheduled Tribe. There has been no caste census carried out since 1931, so there is a debate on the actual OBC population in India. The National Sample Survey Organisation puts the number at 41.9%, while the Mandal Commission puts it at 52%. 

Now, let's see the voting pattern of various caste/community and religious groups over the years. We have compared the 1971 numbers with the latest 2019 numbers. 1971 numbers for Bharatiya Janata Party are of BJS (Bhartiya Jana Sangh). 

Among the SC community, BJP’s support has more than tripled from 10% in 1971 to 34% in 2019. On the other hand, Congress party’s support has more than halved from 46% in 1971 to 20% in 2019. Regional parties including Bahujan Samaj Party command higher support among SCs.

Among the ST community, BJP’s support has risen sharply from 5% in 1971 to 44% in 2019. On the other hand, Congress party’s support has declined from 48% in 1971 to 31% in 2019.

Among OBCs, BJP’s support has doubled from 22% in 2009 to 44% in 2019. While, the Congress party’s support has declined from 24% in 2009 to 15% in 2019. 

BJP has largely gained at the expense of regional parties, mainly ex-Janata Dal constituents, who have benefitted in the coalition era from implementation of Mandal Commission report. Support for regional parties has fallen from 56% in 1996 to 41% in 2019 among OBCs.

Among the general category, BJP’s support has risen sharply from 35% in 1996 to 61% in 2019. On the other hand, Congress party’s support has halved from 25% to 12% during this period. 

Among Muslims, Congress used to enjoy massive 75% support in 1971. Over the years, it has lost significant support to regional parties across the country, with support falling to half at 33% in 2019. 

Regional parties in states today get the highest Muslim support, at 59% in 2019; while BJP gets very little support, at sub-10% levels. The Prime Minister has launched an outreach programme for the Pasmanda Muslims. Its impact, if any, we will have to wait and see in 2024.

BJP got around 37.4% vote share in 2019. How did it get this vote share? It got 3.8% vote share from ST community, 5.6% from SC, 18.4% from OBC, 7.7% from general category, 1.1% from Muslims and 0.7% from others. 

Congress got around 19.5% vote share in 2019. How did it get this vote share? It got 2.7% vote share from ST community, 3.3% from SC, 6.3% from OBC, 1.5% from general category, 4.7% from Muslims and 1% from others.

BJP, over the last 10 years, has given a class tadka to caste politics. They have developed a loyal labharthi vote bank through many popular schemes for various voting cohorts, like PM Awas Yojana (poor), PM Ujjwala Yojana (women), Ayushman Bharat (health insurance for poor), PM Kisan Nidhi (farmers), Mudra Loans (credit support to micro entrepreneurs), etc. This vote bank is believed to be voting cutting across caste/religious identity lines, which has complicated matters for political parties, politicians and commentators. 

What this has done is that this has resulted in decline of caste as main voting consideration. In the Hindi heartland state of Uttar Pradesh, where caste is supreme, only 4% voters voted on the basis of caste in 2022 state elections, while 12% because they were beneficiaries of either state or central government schemes. 

The OBC voters, which account for the highest population in the country, have shifted to BJP over the years, with double the support from 22% in 2009 to 44% in 2019. BJP has managed to somewhat blur the caste lines in its stronghold states, uniting various groups under its Hindutva umbrella. Its nationalism pitch plus labharthi model has also attracted voters, cutting across caste lines. 

Opposition realises this and has hence played the card of caste census, coining the slogan 'Jiski Jitni Sankhya Bhaari Uski Utni Hissedaari''. Without OBC vote/support, it is difficult for INDIA bloc to win. The caste census plank was launched by Congress in 2023 Hindi heartland states, however, it did not work. 

Though ostensibly, the objective of caste census is social welfare. It has the political motive to break the hold of BJP over OBC vote by promising increased reservation. The lower OBCs/MBCs have cornered very few jobs in the existing reservation system. They might fear that dominant OBC caste groups, who have benefitted from the current system, will gain from additional reservation and hence, may not be as enthusiastic about the idea. This largely negates the caste census pitch of the opposition. 

PM Narendra Modi is also blaming the opposition for taking the country backward (talking about caste), while he is talking about taking the country forward (making India a developed nation by 2047). 

Amitabh Tiwari is a political commentator, strategist, and consultant advising political parties and leaders. He was previously a corporate and investment banker.

The views expressed here are those of the author, and do not necessarily represent the views of NDTV Profit or its editorial team.