Lok Sabha Elections 2024: The Bihar Cricket Match

Bihar, which sends 40 MPs to Parliament, is witnessing a seven phase election. In the first two phases, nine seats have already been voted for and sealed the fate of candidates. The state has witnessed lower turnout in both phases compared to 2019, due to scorching heat and lack of enthusiasm among voters. 

The political dynamic of the state has recorded a significant churn with Nitish Kumar, the proponent of INDIA bloc, making a U-turn and joining the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance in January this year, tilting the scale in favour of NDA. BJP with Janata Dal (United) and Lok Janshakti Party had swept the state in 2019, winning 39 of the 40 seats with Mahagathbandhan/United Progressive Alliance winning just one seat. 

While the BJP hopes to repeat the performance, the Mahagathbandhan/UPA—now INDIA bloc—hopes to make significant dent riding on their premise of falling popularity of Nitish, due to his constant flip-flops. 

In 2020, the Tejashwi Yadav-led MGB gave a scare to the BJP-Nitish alliance, with NDA winning 125-110 in a 243-member assembly with 122 as majority. Tejashwi hopes his popularity among youth, and work done in generating employment while he was Deputy Chief Minister under Nitish, will win him votes and help him give a tough fight to NDA.

The NDA is led by BJP’s Narendra Modi, while INDIA by Rashtriya Janata Dal’s Tejashwi Yadav. Lalu Yadav is the non-playing captain of this team.

NDA’s vice captain is Nitish Kumar of JDU, while INDIA’s vice captain is Akhilesh Prasad Singh of the Congress party.

The middle order of NDA is strengthened by Chirag Paswan of the LJP, while INDIA’s middle order is bolstered by Dipankar Bhattarcharya of Communist Party of India (Marxist–Leninist) (Left). Hindustani Awam Morcha’s Jiten Ram Manjhi along with Rashtriya Lok Morcha’s Upendra Kushwaha are the tailenders of NDA, while Mukesh Sahani of Vikassheel Insaan Party is the tailender of INDIA bloc. 

BJP, captain of NDA, has been given a target to score 17 runs (contest on 17 seats) by team NDA. JDU has been given a target of 16, LJP five and HAM and RLM one each.

RJD, captain of INDIA, has been given a target to score 23 runs (contest on 23 seats) by team INDIA. Indian National Congress has been given a target of nine, Left parties five and VIP three runs. 

Both the captains, BJP and RJD, who are in good form are facing each other in nine seats. These are expected to be keenly contested. The vice-captains JDU and Congress are facing each other in three seats, both a bit out of form. NDA Captain BJP is facing INDIA Vice Captain INC in five seats, and like at all India level, BJP is confident of winning these contests, on the basis of its exceptional strike rate against Congress at all India level in 2019 (BJP won 175 of 190 direct fights with Congress in 2019). 

INDIA Captain RJD is facing NDA Vice Captain JDU in 10 seats, and here is where Tejashwi hopes to make a dent in Nitish Kumar’s tally, banking on disillusionment with the CM due to his palturam image. JDU is contesting on 16 seats and is facing RJD in 10 of these. The direction of Bihar elections will be set in these 10 contests of Chacha vs Bhatija. 

Captain of NDA, BJP, is facing middle order, Left parties of INDIA, in three seats. The Left parties performed exceptionally well in 2020 state elections (Ranji Trophy) of sorts and had the best strike rate in team INDIA. 

Whereas, Captain of INDIA, RJD, is facing the middle order of NDA (LJP) in three and tailender of NDA (HAM) in one seat and will hope to perform better on these seats. 

JDU and Congress are clear weak links of NDA and INDIA, respectively. JDU recorded a strike rate of just 37.4% in 2020 state elections against BJP’s 67.3%. INC recorded a strike rate of just 27.1% in 2020 state elections against RJD’s 52.1%. VIP, who was in team NDA, and has now hopped to team INDIA, also had a poor strike rate of 36.4% and could be considered as weak link of INDIA bloc. CPI from INDIA bloc can also be considered a weak link as it could win just two of the six seats it contested. The performance of the weak links could determine the results of the Bihar election league. 

NDA has a rainbow coalition of castes in its basket, Kurmi/Koeri,  Kushwaha, Mahadalit, Paswan, Upper Caste and EBCs. INDIA/MGB, too, has expanded its vote base beyond Muslim-Yadav and made a decent enough dent in Economically Backward Category vote bank in 2020 Vidhan Sabha elections. This time RJD has attempted to neutralise its Muslim-Yadav image by giving tickets to candidates from other communities, while INC has given more tickets to upper caste candidates to make a dent in BJP vote. 

While BJP was expected to contest on a higher number of seats, Nitish did not budge to BJP leadership demand and is contesting on almost the same number of seats as last time (16 vs 17). Both JDU and INC perhaps have been given a higher number of seats than what they deserved, analysts observe. 

To sum up, Rahul’s dropped catch (dropping Nitish and enabling his gharwapsi to NDA) could prove to be the most important moment of this cricket match in Bihar. The form of captains BJP and RJD, and lack of form of JDU and INC could tilt the scale in favour of either team. 

Amitabh Tiwari is a political commentator, strategist, and consultant advising political parties and leaders. He was previously a corporate and investment banker.

The views expressed here are those of the author, and do not necessarily represent the views of NDTV Profit or its editorial team.