Kejriwal To Resign: A Masterstroke Or Political Harakiri?

In a surprising turn of events, Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal has announced his plans of resigning and electing a new leader at the helm, days after being granted relief from the Supreme Court. 

"Two days later, I will resign as Chief Minister. I will not sit on that chair till the people announce their verdict. Elections in Delhi are months away. I got justice from the legal court; now I will get justice from the people's court. I will sit on the Chief Minister's chair only after the order of the people," he said. 

The political move is aimed at resurrecting his image, which has been dented after his arrest and corruption allegations, rebooting the party, recovering lost ground and winning the Delhi elections scheduled early next year, while at the same time catching the BJP off-guard. 

He plans to seek a mandate from the people’s court after getting bail from a legal court before occupying the chair again. 

BJP is claiming moral victory, while AAP says the decision was not taken under pressure. They argue if Kejriwal would have resigned after being jailed, it would have been seen as a sign of weakness and admission of guilt. 

It's a classic Kejriwal tactic, as he did the same thing in 2014 before general elections. That time it worked as AAP swept the polls in 2015, winning 67 of the 70 seats. He loves to play the victim card, which allows him to occupy the space of opposition despite being in power. 

Delhi is key to AAP’s existence. AAP has a chance to equalise Sheila Dixit’s record of three terms. A smart politician, Kejriwal, realises that his image has taken a hit, AAP’s tagline of party with a difference has been neutralised to some extent and it needs to get back its mojo. 

In his absence, the governance in Delhi was impacted as the water crisis during summers and waterlogging during rains exposed Delhi’s crumbling infrastructure. 

While AAP claims it doesn’t have the power to do much as LG takes all calls, this level of intricate distinction and the power sharing legality may not be understood by the common voter.

The Delhi polls will witness a battle of competing narratives. AAP will try to communicate that the BJP is out to finish Kejriwal and the party; all charges are fabricated and politically motivated. The BJP will try to convince voters that Kejriwal is corrupt and his jail term has brought governance to a standstill. 

The fact that AAP couldn’t get sympathy votes in general elections in Delhi, failing to win a single seat, is a worrisome factor for the party. Its vote share increased from 18% to 24% in alliance with Congress and the BJP's margins reduced on seats, but it could not prevent a sweep despite “jail ka jawab vote se.”.

Even in Punjab, it could win only three seats and lose 16% of the of the vote share compared to the 2022 Vidhan Sabha polls. AAP has gained at the expense of INC, as it weakened during 2014–2022, and now INC, reviving, did better than AAP in Punjab. INC contesting alone made it difficult for AAP to win municipal polls in Delhi.

AAP witnessed an erosion in support during the 2022 municipal polls right after retaining Delhi in 2020, winning 62/70 seats. The party recorded a vote share of 42%, down from 54% in Vidhan Sabha polls, a lead of only 3% against the BJP. In terms of seats, AAP won 134, BJP won 104, with 126 being the simple majority. It was a much tighter election. 

Kejriwal is likely to use the time to go to the people, tighten the nuts and bolts of the party organisation, revive support across caste/class groups, and claim he is the victim of the BJP's witch hunt, with even the Supreme Court calling CBI a caged parrot to puncture graft charges. He would attempt to revive his “kattar imaandaar” image. 

Delhi follows a peculiar pattern wherein people exhibit split voting, backing AAP in Vidhan Sabha and BJP in Lok Sabha polls. AAP would hope for the trend to continue. BJP would hope Kejriwal’s image is dented among swing voters and they would not move back to AAP. 

Kejriwal is the star campaigner for the party and is expected to boost the party's prospects in Haryana, where an alliance with Congress could not be worked out. 

AAP’s campaign has been lacklustre in Haryana. Kejriwal may give it momentum, which could increase Congress worry and split the opposition vote. AAP may not be in a position to win many seats but it could spoil the prospects of both the BJP and Congress.

AAP has gained at the expense of Congress in Delhi and Punjab. A section of Delhi Congress leaders termed Kejriwal’s announcement “nautanki (drama)”. 

“He is doing drama. He has no moral ground anymore. If he had any morality, he would have resigned earlier,” said Delhi Congress leader and former MP Sandeep Dikshit. Asked about the two opposition parties being allies nationally, Dikshit said, “That is at the national level. But in Delhi, our fight is against Arvind Kejriwal.”

This shows Congress and AAP may not have an alliance in Delhi. If Congress gains vote share like it has done nationally in general elections, it could hurt AAP’s prospects as it could pull a section of SC, Muslim voters. Congress Party did well in municipal polls 2022 and it hurt AAP. 

A resurgent Congress along with a dented AAP could portend a return to triangular contests like in 2013. 

AAP is the only party in India with a government in more than one state after the BJP and Congress. Kejriwal was ranked CM no. 2 across India in the C-Voter Mood of the Nation, released in late August and also the third joint PM preference of voters, along with Mamata Banerjee, though support has declined from the previous survey in January this year. 

AAP has been born out of a social movement, and it symbolises the power of a common man that if push comes to shove, aam aadmi not only can join politics but also defeat prominent parties and run governments. 

Kejriwal’s economic/governance model of free bijli/paani is now in manifestos of mainstream parties. In a way, he, along with Modi, started social-economic class-based politics rather than caste-based politics.

He was the first to promise cash income support to women during elections in Punjab, now copied by all parties. Ladli Laxmi and its variants are now popular in Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka, and Maharashtra and are being launched in Odisha. The word guarantee was also used by him first, which was later co-opted by Congress and BJP.

Now with Congress reviving AAP’s plans of occupying the opposition vacuum, it takes a hit. But Congress doesn’t have muscle to take on the BJP across states and here is where AAP fits in, like many regional forces, to take on the saffron party in a few states. Kejriwal is still relevant for a united opposition. 

Whether Kejriwal’s gamble will work or not, only time will tell. The thing that works for him is that both BJP and Congress do not have a leader to match him in Delhi. 

AAP faces challenges not only of recovering some of the lost ground but also ensuring a smooth transition. A new CM could give rise to factionalism within the party and disgruntlement among leaders who miss out. He also needs to ensure the new leader is selected through a democratic process, as he has been accused of autocratic behaviour by co-founders who have left the party. 

Amitabh Tiwari is a political commentator, strategist, and consultant advising political parties and leaders. He was previously a corporate and investment banker