Haryana Election: Caste Holds The Key In Battle Between Congress And BJP

With the last date of nominations closed for state elections, the political atmosphere has heated up in Haryana. BJP and Congress (INC) have faced revolt after declaration of candidates, more so the saffron party. The major blocks are trying to create their own social engineering set which highlights the fact that caste is cast in stone in Haryana.

While BJP is relying on its anchor voting segments of brahmins, rajputs, aroras/hhatris/punjabis, OBCs and SCs, Congress is trying to replicate the jat-dalit-muslim combination created in general elections.

The regional parties Jannayak Janta Party (JJP) and Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) are aiming to woo jat and dalit communities. The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is hoping to get support of poor socio economic class lured by its guarantees and development model of neighbouring Delhi.

INLD has allied with BSP, JJP with ASP and AAP has thrown its hat in the ring after alliance talks failed with congress, which has made the contest multi-cornered.

Caste Wise Population

Jats are the most influential and single biggest caste group accounting for roughly 27% of population. There are 37 seats which have a significant Jat population of more than 20%. These seats are in what is called as Jatland mainly in Rohtak and Hisar administrative divisions.

This is followed by dalits/SCs who are 20% of the population. Maximum scheduled caste population is in the Fatehabad district (30.2%), followed by Sirsa 29.9 %, Ambala 26.3 %. Minimum share of scheduled caste population is in Mewat 6.9 %, Faridabad 12.4 %,and Gurgaon 13.1 %. There are 49 seats where the chamar/jatav population is more than 10%.

Brahmins, aroras/khatris/punjabis and muslims account for 7% of population each. There are 25 seats where brahmins are more than 10% of population (half of them in Rohtak and Ambala divisions) while 17 seats where khatris are more than 10% (half of them in Hisar and Ambala). Ahirs and gujjars (included in OBCs) account for 5% of population each.

While ahir community has influence in Gurugram division, gujjars have influence in Faridabad zone. They account for more than 10% of the population in 10 seats each. The bania community and sainis account for 4% and 3% of the population.

Sikhs account for 5% and have presence in northern Haryana in districts bordering Punjab. There is no Schedule Tribe population (ST) in Haryana.

Jats, Dalits, Muslims (JDM bloc) backed INC in Lok Sabha

In 2014 Vidhan Sabha polls, INLD bagged the maximum jat vote (42%). brahmins (47%) and OBCs (40%) backed the BJP, dalit votes were split between the three parties while muslims (50%+) backed the INC.

While BJP was able to create an umbrella of upper caste and OBCs, jat and dalit community votes were split between INLD and INC, which helped the party win 47 out of 90 seats.

In 2019 Vidhan Sabha polls, the jat vote again was split between the INC and JJP (splinter group of INLD). BJP continued to bag the maximum brahmin and OBC vote (42% each). INC secured the majority of dalit community votes (37%) keeping intact the support of muslims (60%+).

The BJP was clearly on the backfoot in this election, bearing the jat community's brunt for failing to include them in the OBC list. The state threw a hung assembly with BJP emerging as SLP winning 40 of the 90 seats. To BJP’s advantage, JJP bagged 31% of community votes splitting the community vote, bagging 10 seats and damaging INC’s prospects. The two joined hands together in a pre-poll alliance.

In between 2019 and 2024, three social protests shook the state starting from farmers’ protest against the Farm Bills, to wrestlers’ protest against sexual harassment charges against Wrestling Body Chief led by female athletes, and finally protests by youth against Agniveer Scheme. This created a lot of discontent amongst these voters.

Agriculture is the mainstay of the rural populace of state, Haryana sent the maximum athletes to Olympics (20% of team) while also sending a very high number of soldiers in armed forces (11%). Majority of the jats are engaged in farming.

In the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, INC bagged 64% (+40%) jat and 68% dalit community votes (+27%). The INC-AAP alliance even led amongst the OBC voters, which is the anchor voting segment of BJP (-29%). The INDIA bloc won 5 of the 10 seats, gaining 5 from the BJP. BJP’s tally reduced to half compared to 2019.

INC Looks Beyond JDM Bloc; BJP Hoping For Jat vs Non-Jat

Jats have occupied the CM chair of the state 55%-60% of the time. They are obviously peeved with the BJP which has employed an anti-dominant caste politics strategy by ignoring the community for the top chair for the past 10 years. There is an element of natural discontent against influential communities which can be exploited and BJP has done the same in Haryana.

They say there are 36 biradaris (communities) in Haryana. In February 2016, when the jats started an agitation demanding reservation, the remaining 35 biradaris came together to counter the stir. Their protest, however, lasted only a few hours as they disintegrated after the first clash with jat protesters.

Congress party is aware of this factor and hence doesn’t want to make it a jat versus non-jat contest. They have not gone ahead and declared Hoodas as their CM face. The JJP has lost face amongst the Jat voters for allying with BJP in 2019 while INLD has influence on max 2-3 seats which raises grand old party's hopes.

On the other hand, BJP wishes to make it a jat versus non-jat contest, and consolidate the other communities. The fact that farmers, wrestlers, youth protesting against BJP mostly come from the community, strengthens its case.

The jat and dalit combo is brittle as they have a history of violence. Dalits flocked to the INDIA bloc as the narrative that BJP will change constitution and end reservations if it wins 400 seats worked on the ground. This is no longer the case and BJP hopes to wean away a slice of Dalit voters from Congress. It also prays that BSP and ASP split the community votes harming the grand old party.

BJP's anti dominant caste politics held sway in 2014 and 2019. Can it meander through wrestlers/farmers/Agniveer protests led by jats? Can it make a dent in the jat-dalit-muslim combination of INC? Can JJP/INLD split jat and dalit votes like in 2014 and 2019? Can inclusion of former wrestler Vinesh Phogat strengthen INC’s case amongst women and youth voters? All of this could decide who wins.

Rebels are a cause of concern for both INC and BJP. Others who have decent influence in the state could play the role of spoilsport and vote cutter for both parties. A fascinating contest is on the cards with Congress having an edge as per initial surveys. 2024 results have shown we need to wait and watch till the last vote is counted.

Amitabh Tiwari is a political commentator, strategist, and consultant advising political parties and leaders. He was previously a corporate and investment banker.

The views expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of BQ Prime or its editorial team.