India's Population Growth On Downward Trajectory, South's Share To Dip: SBI Research

The population of India, which is seen by the United Nations as the highest in the world, is likely to have risen to 138-142 crore by 2024, according to a report released by SBI Research on Tuesday.

Despite the climb in absolute numbers, the country's population growth rate is on a "downward trajectory", the research arm of the State Bank of India said.

"Our research reveals the average annual exponential growth to be on downward trajectory and expected to decline from 2.20% in 1971 to ~1.00% in 2024, putting the national population somewhere in the range of 138-142 crore in 2024," it stated.

The country's population stood at 121.1 crore in 2011, when the last census was conducted. At the time, the average annual exponential growth rate stood at 1.63.

The decline in the growth rate, as projected by SBI Research, indicates that the population will accelerate at a comparatively lower pace over the next decade.

Notably, the study has been released ahead of the upcoming census. Union Home Minister Amit Shah said on Sept. 17 that the census exercise, which was paused due to the Covid-19 outbreak in 2020, will be "resumed very soon".

"State-wise incremental share in total population growth reveals the share of southern states, chiefly Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana in incremental population growth to decline (vis-à-vis 2011)," SBI Research said.

On the other hand, northern states are driving the population's expansion, with Uttar Pradesh and Bihar estimated to account for 33% share in the incremental growth, it said.

North and Eastern regions together have around 52% share in the entire population, as compared to 51% in 2011, the study said. "While, individually, east and southern regions show fall in share from a decade-plus ago numbers," it further noted.

The working age population, comprising those aged from 15 to 59, has witnessed an increasing trend since 1971 "and is projected to reach 64.4% in 2021, further likely to increase to 65.2% in 2031", the report said. This bodes well for the country’s productivity, it said.

While the median age of India is expected to increase from 24 years in 2021 to 28-29 years in 2023/24, it is still one of the youngest nation in the world, SBI Research noted.

"India fares quite well placed on this parameter with China, whose median age now comes to 39.5 years against 34.5 years in 2011…The demographic dividends can be huge and a growth multiplier in coming decade," it added.

According to SBI Research, elderly population is estimated to have crossed 15 crore in 2024, comprising 7.7 crore female and 7.3 crore male. Between 2011 and 2024, the elderly population is seen to have grown by 4.6 crore persons, it added.

"The proportion of elderly persons is ever increasing since 1951 and is projected to reach 10.7% in 2024, and likely to further increase to 13.1% in 2031," the report said.

On the other hand, the proportion of children in the age group of 0-14 years is projected to be 24.3% in 2024, whereas it was 30.9% in 2011, it pointed out.

SBI Research, citing an official report, said Kerala had the maximum proportion of elderly people in its population (16.5%), followed by Tamil Nadu (13.6%), Himachal Pradesh (13.1%), Punjab (12.6%) and Andhra Pradesh (12.4%) in 2021. On the contrary, their proportion is least in the states of Bihar (7.7%), followed by Uttar Pradesh (8.1%) and Assam (8.2%).

The decadal trends point towards a rapidly urbanising India, SBI Research said. According to census 2011, India's urban population was 31.1% of the total population, which is expected to increase to 35-37% in census 2024, it noted.

Among major states, Tamil Nadu continues to be the most urbanised with 54% of the population living in urban areas, followed by Maharashtra (48.8%), which leads in absolute number of persons living in urban areas, the report said.

Himachal Pradesh (10.3%), followed by Bihar with 12.4%, Assam (15.7%) and Orissa (19.0%) form the other end of the spectrum, it added.

Due to increase in level of urbanisation, "the number of million-plus cities are increasing". "From merely 18 cities in 1991 census, it had increased to 52 in 2011 census. We believe that in 2024 census around 75-80 cities would have million-plus population having their own challenges," the report further said.