As A Fab Financial Year Comes To An End, Here's What Is In Store For FY25

Across the board records have been set. From equity returns to fund raising, both public and private, fiscal 2024 has set records I can’t remember in the last 10 years with the exception of the covid years. This feat is well captured by NDTV Profit platform’s markets and research desk in the form of stories and charts. Please read some of the best in the following links:

Excesses are common in a booming economy and markets. Left unchecked they pump up the bubble. But our regulators stepped in at the right time. The Reserve Bank of India and the SEBI took a series of steps to ensure banks and borrowers kept their avarice in check. SEBI deserves a special mention. The market regulator caught crooks misusing the boom through specific actions and plugged loopholes through systemic changes in the IPO market and settlement systems.

Life for the common citizen has been made easy through seamless digital payment systems enabling financial inclusion that I could never have imagined 10 or 15 years ago. This is the aadhar or foundation of our economy’s fast paced take off. Now, other countries want to emulate our example.

India’s resilience in the face of global slow down triggered by rising interest rates and inflation is well documented.

In the corporate world the Adani group’s ability to withstand the onslaught triggered by short-seller Hindenburg’s report cannot be ignored. The damage caused by the report went beyond the group stocks. Wealth was destroyed across the markets in a very short span of time. The Adani group fought back through a series of measures to instil confidence among investors. They finally got a clean chit from the Supreme Court. Back on track the group is firing on all cylinders with its mega expansion plans.

A lot, I would say. The real take-off of the economy will begin in the first year of the next 4-5 years. But not without turbulence in the early months. The first stop will be the RBI policy later this week which is most likely status quo and the focus continues to be on fighting inflation. That coincides with the earnings for the fourth quarter. Guidance, rather than performance will keep the engine running.

June/July will bring fresh tidings as the full-fledged budget, soon after the new government is sworn in, will lay the road map for the making of a developed India economy.

Monsoon will, hopefully, keep the economy fertile and help sow the seeds for a greener future.

For investors, Fed could play truant and there are still no clear signs of when the rate cuts will begin. It will take at least three quarters for any clarity to emerge.

Till then prudent strategy demands betting selectively on companies that can deliver. Returns of the kind seen in 20-23 may not be possible. This is going to be a year of consolidation.

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Muralidhar Swaminathan is the Managing Editor of NDTV Profit.