(Bloomberg) -- A rout in chipmakers dragged down stocks, with traders also sifting through corporate results and economic data. In late hours, Meta Platforms Inc. slid while Microsoft Corp. climbed after earnings.
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A $300 billion exchange-traded fund tracking the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) extended losses after the close of regular trading as Meta’s spending guidance failed to enthuse investors. That’s even after a sales beat. Microsoft rose as its cloud-computing business and Office software fueled stronger-than-projected quarterly revenue growth. EBay Inc. dropped after projecting holiday season sales that fell short of analysts’ estimates.
Equities struggled to gain traction Wednesday as a closely watched gauge of semiconductor companies tumbled. The rout was driven by a slide in Nvidia Corp. and underwhelming results at Advanced Micro Devices Inc. Server maker Super Micro Computer Inc. plunged 33% as Ernst & Young LLP resigned as its auditor. Alphabet Inc. jumped on better-than-expected sales.
Traders trimmed bets on policy easing after data showing the US economy expanded at a robust pace in the third quarter as household purchases accelerated ahead of the election and the federal government ramped up defense spending. A measure of underlying inflation rose 2.2%, roughly in line with the Federal Reserve’s target.
“Solid but not blistering growth fits nicely within the current economic backdrop,” said Bret Kenwell at eToro. “Too hot of a print and investors would likely question the Fed’s decision to cut rates by 50 basis points in September, while a weak print could reignite worries about a deteriorating economy.”
Kenwell says investors should cheer for strong economic data — even if that means slower-than-expected rate cuts from the Fed.
“It’s far better to have a strong economy and earnings driving stocks higher rather than hopes of easing monetary policy from the Fed,” he said.
The S&P 500 fell 0.3%. The Nasdaq 100 slid 0.8%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.2%. Homebuilders rallied as pending home sales in the US saw their biggest gain since 2020. Visa Inc. climbed on solid results. Eli Lilly & Co. got hit after lowering its guidance amid lackluster sales of its weight-loss drug.
Treasury two-year yields, which are more sensitive to imminent Fed moves, rose seven basis points to 4.16%.
UK bonds fell as investors balked at the new government’s plan for historically high debt issuance to help fund investment and stimulate the economy, which could mean higher for longer rates. Oil rebounded.
Photo source: Bloomberg
Photo source: Bloomberg
The US stock market’s fundamental flows are turning increasingly bullish, which should give equities a fresh jolt once the US election is out of the way.
The elements of a rally are building up — stocks are entering a historically strong season and companies are starting to buy back shares. Investors may be over-hedged for the series of earnings, US election and central bank risks looming through early November. And with market volatility declining from the early-August high, systematic investors and options desks may be forced to snap up stocks.
Selling by mutual funds — typically the biggest offloader of stocks — is fading into the end of the month. That’s set to reverse, with November typically seeing inflows into equities, while at the same time the corporate buyback window is re-opening with an estimate of $6 billion of buying every single day in November, according to Scott Rubner, a managing director for global markets and tactical specialist at Goldman Sachs.
“Animal spirits” could return to markets in the wake of the US election, Barclays Plc strategists led by Emmanuel Cau wrote in a note, saying as investors appear to be in “wait-and-see” mode into the vote.
Equity inflows were steady in October with caution remaining under the hood and volumes low. The strategists say that hedge funds and systematic strategies added to their equity positions in October, after largely being on the sidelines in September.
While US stocks may be rising ahead of a potential victory for Donald Trump in next week’s US election, strategists at Citigroup Inc. say a clean sweep for the Republican party will be a signal to sell.
A Trump win is generally seen as good news for stocks because his proposals to lower corporate taxes would likely benefit company earnings. The Citi strategists argue, however, that the “near-euphoric sentiment” that’s driving the S&P 500 toward a sixth straight month of gains is leaving it ripe for a pullback.
Meantime, JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists said earnings downgrades are dominant across the world, a backdrop that would rarely support equity prices.
Strategists led by Khuram Chaudhry noted that while global equity indexes continue to trade near all-time highs, equity sentiment seems to have peaked and is now mean-reverting, with positive sentiment very likely to dwindle as global consensus earnings downgrades increase.
Photo source: Bloomberg
Photo source: Bloomberg
An earnings sentiment downturn is also evident, showing that the percentage of US stocks with positive earnings revisions has been receding from its April high, according to Tim Hayes at Ned Davis Research.
“Earnings beat rate momentum peaked and is now negative,” said Hayes. “The breadth of positive earnings revisions has weakened. US revisions have declined, with negative implications for future earnings.”
If the earnings sentiment trends continue, they will warn not to ignore indications of significant tape deterioration, especially with other sentiment indicators confirming that peak optimism is behind us, he added.
“In terms of US equities ahead of elections next week, we are still watching the 5,750-5,800 zone for the S&P 500,” said Dan Wantrobski at Janney Montgomery Scott. “Measuring implications from recent bullish patterns still imply a target range of 6,200. However, we remain concerned regarding stubborn overbought/extended conditions on the longer-term charts.”
He says the index is still vulnerable to a “bigger correction” heading into year-end or (more likely) in the first quarter of 2025.
Photo source: Bloomberg
Photo source: Bloomberg
Companies looking to go public in the US this year have seemingly given up on the traditional window after the Labor Day holiday in September, dashing hopes for a rush of deals ahead of the presidential election.
Proceeds from inaugural share sales on the public markets have brought in $7.7 billion since Sept. 2, data compiled by Bloomberg show. That’s about one-fifth of total volume so far and significantly lower than this time last year, when Arm Holdings Plc and others raised $9.6 billion.
Photo source: Bloomberg
Photo source: Bloomberg
Meanwhile, this month’s rout in Treasuries is hammering trend-chasing quant investors who had built up bullish positions in bonds, the latest setback for a strategy that has misfired badly at times this year amid market convulsions.
The quants, known as commodity trading advisers, seek to profit from momentum in assets such as bonds, stocks and currencies.
Most recently, they piled into wagers that US government debt would keep rallying as the Fed launched interest-rate cuts, amassing the largest long positions in three years as of late September, according to data compiled by Deutsche Bank AG.
Photo source: Bloomberg
Photo source: Bloomberg
And the price to hedge against swings in the US dollar surged to the highest in nearly two years as traders prepare for the risk of big market moves after next week’s presidential election.
A measure of one-week implied volatility on the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose on Wednesday to the highest since December 2022, when recession fears briefly raced through financial markets. That indicates traders are preparing for large swings in the currency against major peers like the euro, yen, Chinese yuan and Mexican peso, pushing up the cost of options that protect against such moves.
Corporate Highlights:
Carvana Co. reported higher-than-expected results for the most recent quarter, buoyed by resilient used-car demand and pricing, and sounded a bullish note for its full-year earnings outlook.
Clorox Co. raised its annual profit guidance after increased advertising helped the bleach maker fully regain the market share that it lost when a cyberattack disrupted production last year.
MGM Resorts International reported lower-than-expected sales and profit for the third quarter amid a slowdown in Las Vegas betting.
DoorDash Inc. beat Wall Street’s expectations on virtually every key earnings metric, allowing the delivery service to post its first operating profit since the start of the pandemic.
Caterpillar Inc., the maker of iconic yellow bulldozers, reduced its sales outlook from a slowdown in construction activity around the world.
AbbVie Inc. raised its full-year profit forecast as demand for its top-selling anti-inflammatory drugs, Rinvoq and Skyrizi, exceeded expectations.
Humana Inc. issued a more optimistic 2024 forecast after third-quarter profit exceeded expectations, breaking with larger peers that have struggled to contain medical costs.
Walt Disney Co. won the rights to broadcast the annual Grammy music awards in a 10-year deal that wrests the show from its longtime home on Paramount Global’s CBS.
Bitcoin hedge-fund proxy MicroStrategy Inc. posted a third consecutive quarterly loss after taking an impairment charge against the value of its roughly $18 billion stockpile of the cryptocurrency.
Airbus SE will replace the head of its commercial aircraft business and stick with a goal to deliver about 770 aircraft this year, underscoring the planemaker’s focus on ironing out supply-chain glitches that have hampered production plans.
Key events this week:
China Manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI, Thursday
Bank of Japan rate decision, Thursday
Eurozone CPI, unemployment, Thursday
US personal income, spending and PCE inflation data, initial jobless claims, Thursday
Amazon, Apple earnings, Thursday
China Caixin manufacturing PMI, Friday
US employment, ISM manufacturing, Friday
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
The S&P 500 fell 0.3% as of 4 p.m. New York time
The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.8%
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.2%
The MSCI World Index fell 0.3%
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.1%
The euro rose 0.4% to $1.0861
The British pound fell 0.4% to $1.2969
The Japanese yen was little changed at 153.29 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin fell 0.7% to $71,824.88
Ether rose 1.3% to $2,655.02
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced three basis points to 4.28%
Germany’s 10-year yield advanced five basis points to 2.39%
Britain’s 10-year yield advanced four basis points to 4.35%
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude rose 2.5% to $68.92 a barrel
Spot gold rose 0.5% to $2,787.59 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
© 2024 Bloomberg L.P.
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