Brokerage Views: Citi On UltraTech, Jefferies On Reliance Jio And More

Brokerages have cement stocks on their radar, with prime focus on UltraTech Cement Ltd. Emkay Global initiates coverage on Man Industries Ltd., while Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. is bullish on Godrej Properties Ltd. Morgan Stanley remains 'overweight' on Reliance Industries Ltd. Brokerages share their insights on the telecom sector.

NDTV Profit tracks what the brokerages are putting out on stocks and sectors. Here are all the top calls from analysts that you need to know about on Friday.

Citi On UltraTech

Maintains a 'buy' rating on the stock and a target price of Rs 11,500 apiece, implying a potential upside of 3.2% from the previous close.
Expects12% volume CAGR through fiscal 2024 to 2027.
If the firm buys the remaining stake in India Cements, the share of the top five players in the south will rise to 60%.
UltraTech could acquire 100% of India Cements via internal accruals.
Company in the process of increasing exposure in southern markets.

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Emkay On UltraTech

Maintains a 'buy' rating on the stock and a target price of Rs 11,200 apiece, implying a potential downside of 4.6% from the previous close.
Expects capacity market share in the south/pan-India to rise to 26–27% by fiscal 2027.
Expects market share of top four cement groups to rise to 59% by fiscal 2027.
Stake in India Cement could increase and convert into a strategic investment ahead.
Profitability to be capped in the near term.
Continues to favour UltraTech, given strong growth and capital-expenditure plans.
Recent deals, ongoing expansions to solidify the company's presence in southern markets.

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Motilal Oswal On UltraTech

Maintains a 'buy' rating on the stock and a target price of Rs 13,300 apiece, implying a potential upside of 14% from the previous close.
Added 104.2 tonnes per annum of capacity in the last decade.
Cost savings of Rs 200–300 per tonne to be achieved via higher green power share, logistic savings.
Expects CAGR of 18% in Ebitda and 20% in profit after tax over fiscal 2024 to fiscal 2027.
Expects capacity utilisation to be at 82–86% over fiscal 2024–27.
Expects Ebitda per tonne at Rs 1,150 in fiscal 2025, Rs 1,190 in fiscal 2026, and Rs 1,275 in fiscal 2027.
Company maintaining leadership position in industry.

Citi On Ambuja Cements

Maintains a 'neutral' rating on the stock and a target price of Rs 675 apiece, implying a potential upside of 2.4% from the previous close.
Ambuja is set to acquire 100% of Adani Cementation.
The deal is d at $70 million at current market price.
Deal at enterprise per tonne of $27.
Adani Cementation's 275 tonne limestone reserves to support clinker plant with capacity of four tonnes per annum.

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Jefferies On Reliance Jio

Cuts fiscal 2025–27 estimates by 3% on the back of a 2% cut to average revenue per user estimate.
Overall ARPU to reach Rs 231 by fiscal 2027 as compared to the current price of Rs 181 per user.
Bakes in another 10% hike in fiscal 2027.
Expects revenue to grow to 18% and net profit to grow to 26% over fiscals 2024–27.
Post hike, Jio tariffs are at 5–21% premium to Bharti Airtel Ltd.'s as compared to the 3–20% discount present earlier.
More confident that its subscribers are unlikely to churn out.
Focus on subscriber additions as tariffs unchanged for JioBharat users.

CLSA On Reliance Jio

Jio has hiked prepaid tariffs by 13–15%, effective from July 3.
Has changed the threshold for subscribers to avail 5G services from 1.5GB/day to 2GB/day.
Forecasts factor in 6–13% increases in fiscal 2025 to fiscal 2026 and a hike in ARPU to Rs 206–218 from Rs 182 apiece.
Forecasts Jio's subscribers to be at 527 million by fiscal 2026 from 482 million in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2024.

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Morgan Stanley On RIL

Maintains an 'overweight' rating on Reliance Industries Ltd.
Expects a 17% rise in average revenue per user for Reliance Jio by next year.
Does not assume any tariff hike till fiscal 2027.
Another tariff hike of 20% can raise earnings by 10–15% and re-rate multiples further.
Tariff hike in line with base-case expectations.
Improving monetisation of 5G services, using vacated 4G spectrum for consumers currently using 2G.

Motilal Oswal On RIL

Maintains a target price of Rs 3,275 apiece, versus the previous target price of Rs 3,245, implying a potential upside of 8% from the previous close.
Valuing at 12 times the EV/Ebitda of fiscal 2026, valuation arrives at Rs 840 per share as compared to Rs 810 formerly.
Expects a 20% tariff hike could lead to 15% rise in ARPU for Reliance Jio at Rs 206 in fiscal 2025.
Increase in revenue by 11% and Ebitda by 17% in fiscal 2025 to 2026.
Expects Ebitda of Rs 70,100 crore in fiscal 2025 and Rs 79,800 crore in fiscal 2026.

Kotak On Telecom Services

Tariff hike by Jio in line with estimates.
Restricted unlimited 5G to 2GB/day.
Potentially lead to up-trading to the 2GB/day plan by higher data consuming users and provide some monetisation.
Incremental revenue/Ebitda for three players at Rs 40,000 crore at 18% and Rs 30,000 crore at 25% if Bharti Airtel and Vodafone Idea take similar hikes.

Citi On India Telecom

Jio takes the lead on tariff hikes.
The magnitude of the hike is impressive.
Monetisation is now a clear priority for Jio.
Combined with the recent muted spectrum auction, suggest competitive intensity is behind us.
Jio has also taken a step towards monetising 5G by raising the minimum spend required to avail benefits.
Positive for the long term for a period of one to two years.

JP Morgan On India Telecom

Taking a lead in tariff hike indicates Jio’s focus has shifted from share gains to monetisation.
It made 5G access premium by increasing the threshold for unlimited 5G data to more than 2GB per day from 1.5 GB per day.
This effectively drives a 46% increase in tariffs for 5G users, making it twice the overall hikes, driving 5G monetisation.
Jio’s feature phone pricing is unchanged, which could put pressure on Bharti Airtel and Vodafone Idea's 2G strategy.
5G tariff hike should help Jio with increased 5G coverage and availability.

Goldman Sachs On India Telecom

Jio's tariff hike should translate into a 17% increase in ARPU.
Assuming similar hike by other players, incremental Ebitda would be Rs 160 crore for Jio, Rs 130 crore for Bharti Airtel and Rs 60 crore for Vodafone Idea.
This translates into 20–25% of Bharti Airtel's and Jio's annualised Ebitda, and 55% of Vodafone Idea's.
Expects earnings profile for Jio and Bharti Airtel to remain solid.
Expects free cash flow growth to be faster as 5G capital expenditure is almost done.
Sees stocks to be driven by earnings growth profile.

Emkay On JK Tyres

Maintains a 'buy' rating on the stock and a target price of Rs 700 apiece, implying a potential upside of 77.8% from the previous close.
Expects the commercial vehicle industry to enter an upcycle from fiscal 2026.
Believes in improving positioning of Indian tyre companies versus multinational companies.
Continues to offer strong risk-reward at eight times the price-to-earnings ratio of fiscal 2026 versus 16 times the peer average.
Improving demand and premiumisation enabling cost-offsetting via price hikes.

Emkay On Man Industries

Initiates a 'buy' rating on the stock and a target price of Rs 500 apiece, implying a potential upside of 27% from the previous close.
Stock price more than doubled in a year, reflecting improved business fundamentals.
Believes stock is yet to factor in project execution.
Project execution is expected to double the group's revenue in three to four years.
Expects margins at 11.1% in fiscal 2027 vs 9.2% in fiscal 2024 with entry into the stainless-steel business.
Expects group return on expansion to grow to 17.4 in fiscal 2027 and 21.0% in fiscal 2028 with contribution from Saudi expansion.
Key risks include decline in utilisation rates and challenges in newer geographies.

Emkay On Star Health & Allied Insurance

Maintains a 'buy' rating on the stock and a target price of Rs 650 apiece, implying a potential upside of 22.6% from the previous close.
Management expects twice the growth in premiums and thrice the growth in profit after tax over fiscal 2024 to fiscal 2028.
Stock underperformance prices were worse at 26% while ignoring growth longevity in retail health insurance.
Expects combined operating ratio improvement by 1 percentage point in fiscal 2025 and sees medium-term CoR target of 95%.
Company is prepared to implement changes in recently issued master circular on health insurance.

Motilal Oswal On Godrej Properties

Maintains a 'buy' rating on the stock and a target price of Rs 3,600 apiece, implying a potential upside of 16% from the previous close.
Pre-sales guidance of Rs 27,000 crore in fiscal 2025 implies 20% growth.
Increases in cash flows and Rs 3,000 surplus cash to support higher spending.
Remains confident on company meetings or surpassing its launch guidance.
Turnaround in cash flows and profitability to drive stock re-rating.

ICRA On Indian Cement Industry

Cement volumes are likely to grow 7–8% to 455–460 tonnes in fiscal 2025.
Demand to be driven primarily by housing and infra sectors.
Expect capacity additions of 33–35 tonnes per annum in fiscal 2025, led by east and south regions.
Industry revenues in fiscal 2025 are expected to grow 7–8%.
Overall debt levels are projected to be higher by 4–6% in fiscal 2025.

ICRA On Indian Oil Refining & Marketing Industry

Singapore saw gross refining margins down to $3.6 per barrel in the first quarter of fiscal 2025, versus $7 per barrel in the previous quarter.
Expects Singapore GRM to be in the range of $4–5 per barrel in fiscal 2025.
Discounts on Russian crude are expected to be down to about $3 per barrel.
Expects net realizations of Indian oil marketing companies to be higher by Rs 10 for petrol and Rs 6 for diesel.
Operating margins of oil marketing companies to be supported from the marketing segment.

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