Gains In Equities To Temper In 2024: Kotak Securities

Benchmark indices growth will temper in 2024, and the 50-share Nifty will gain only about 2% in the next year, a domestic brokerage said on Monday.

Kotak Securities Ltd. said it expects the key index Nifty to be at 21,834 points by the end of 2024 in the base case. The index closed at 21,418 points at the end of trade on Monday.

Kotak Securities said the Indian markets created history in 2023 with the Nifty surpassing 20,000 points and gaining over 13% to date in the year.

The growth in midcap and smallcap indexes has been stronger at 39% and 48%, respectively, it said, noting that the markets have gained despite events like Russia-Ukraine war, Israel-Hamas War, peak global inflation, rising crude prices, peak U.S. 10 year yield and consumption slowdown.

In the outlook for 2024, the brokerage said we are entering "an eventful period".

There will be a slew of factors to watch out for in the first half of the new year including global rates, the Indian consumption story and also the Indian elections, it said.

"In the upcoming year, we anticipate an increase in volatility as India approaches national elections, coinciding with the United States, also being in an election year," it said.

The brokerage said it sees a period of moderate and stable interest rates in the Indian economy, which will likely support economic activity, and added that the RBI will not change its monetary stance in the new year as it is determined to get inflation down to 4%.

Pointing out that Indian investors have been putting in over Rs 15,000 crore in the markets every month through systematic investment plans alone, the report said such flows support the Indian markets in case of pullouts by foreign investors and also illustrate the confidence of Indians in their own economy.

In the bull case, the brokerage expects the Nifty to be at 24,260 points by the end-2024, while in the bear case, it can go down to 19,048 points as well.