Major Central Banks Now Aligned As Powell Signals Fed Cuts Ahead

(Bloomberg) -- Officials from three of the world’s major central banks on Friday signaled they are firmly on course to lower — or continue lowering — interest rates in the coming months, marking the beginning of the end for an era of high borrowing costs as the global economy slips out of the grip of post-Covid inflation.

“The time has come for policy to adjust,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell told an annual gathering of global policymakers and economists in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, all but committing the US central bank to lowering rates when officials meet in September. 

Getting the Fed’s start date fixed, and having many of the world’s big central banks paddling in the same direction, removes some anxieties for investors. Still, tremendous uncertainty and risks remain. Neither Powell nor his counterparts offered much guidance on how quickly they intend to proceed in lowering rates over the next several months. Meanwhile, against that uncertainty, emerging weakness in labor markets and overall growth are replacing inflation as the chief threat for policymakers.

In addition to Powell, several members of the European Central Bank’s Governing Council were also present for the wonky talk and breathtaking scenery in Grand Teton National Park.

Finland’s Olli Rehn, Latvia’s Martins Kazaks, Croatia’s Boris Vujcic and Portugal’s Mario Centeno all indicated they would support another reduction in interest rates next month – after a landmark cut in June.

Rehn described the disinflation process in the euro area as “on track,” while warning that “the growth outlook in Europe, especially manufacturing, is rather subdued.” He added, that “this enforces the case for a rate cut in September.” 

Centeno called a decision to ease again in less than three weeks “easy,” given the data on inflation and growth.

Bailey Open to Cuts

Euro-area policymakers also now appear more concerned about growth, which has stumbled after a strong first half of the year. They’re also signaling worry over a softening of labor markets and less about inflation, even though the ECB’s mandate doesn’t include employment.

Among the ECB officials, some consensus appeared to emerge around two more cuts this year, including a September move, as long as inflation remains in line with the bank’s projections, which see it coming down to the 2% target in the second half of 2025. 

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey was also due to address the Jackson Hole gathering on Friday. In prepared remarks released ahead of his speech, he signaled an openness to further rate cuts when he said the risks of persistent inflation appeared to be waning.

The UK central bank lowered its benchmark lending rate by a quarter point earlier this month to 5%, the first reduction since the start of the pandemic. 

Elsewhere, central banks in Canada, New Zealand and China are also easing. The big exception is Japan, where officials have embarked on their first tightening cycle in 17 years.

Powell gave little guidance that helps beyond September, saying, “The direction of travel is clear, and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook and the balance of risks.”  

But he did indicate that he and his colleagues will, from here, take more signal from the labor market than from inflation.

“It’s all about optionality and calibrating how they descend the mountain,” said KPMG Chief Economist Diane Swonk. “This speech makes it clear that the labor market is now their No. 1 focus.”

Indeed, Powell gave a full-throated call to support the job market. He cited the recent rise in the unemployment rate to nearly a three-year high of 4.3%, calling the cooling in the labor market “unmistakable” and adding central bankers wouldn’t welcome any further increases.

“We will do everything we can to support a strong labor market as we make further progress toward price stability,” he said.

Research presented at the Jackson Hole conference warned the US labor market is nearing a tipping point, and policymakers run the risk that additional slowing could bring a much larger increase in the unemployment rate.

“It will depend on what the next couple data points come in,” Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said Friday. If unemployment spikes higher, “we have to move bigger.”

Fed officials will get one additional employment report and two inflation releases before their next meeting. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg said they expected unemployment to rise to 4.4% by the end of the year, which may prompt the Fed to cut more quickly.

At the September Fed gathering, officials will also issue a fresh set of economic projections and indicate where they anticipate their policy rate will be at the end of each year through 2026. 

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