CEOs Turn Positive On US Economy For First Time In Two Years

(Bloomberg) -- An index of sentiment among chief executive officers of US companies has turned positive for the first time in two years, according to the Conference Board.

The group’s Measure of CEO Confidence rose to 53 in the first quarter, up from 46 in the final three months of 2023, the Conference Board said in results published Thursday. Readings above 50 indicate more optimistic than pessimistic responses.

“CEOs are feeling better about the economy, but remain cautious about risks ahead,” Roger W. Ferguson, Jr., a trustee of The Conference Board, said in the release.

Growing expectations for lower interest rates in 2024 amid receding inflation contributed to the upswing in sentiment. About a third of company bosses surveyed considered current economic conditions to be better than they were six months ago — up from only 18% in the last quarter of 2023 — while fewer said conditions were worse.

Meanwhile 36% said they expect economic conditions to improve over the next six months — up from 19% in the fourth quarter — and only 27% said they expect conditions to worsen, down from 47% in the last poll. CEO expectations for conditions in their own industries followed a similar upward trend.

Survey respondents overwhelmingly identified political uncertainty ahead of US elections as the greatest domestic challenge affecting businesses this year, while the risk of escalation in international conflicts remained the top global challenge, Ferguson said.

The positive mood in the survey of 138 chief executives, released in collaboration with The Business Council, was consistent with another monthly survey of CEOs released by Chief Executive Magazine. That poll, published earlier this week, reported a third consecutive month of improvement in US CEO sentiment, to the highest since June.

It also followed another Conference Board report published at the end of January showing the most optimistic mood among US consumers since late 2021.

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