Government Approves One, Nation One Election Plan: Key Challenges And Next Steps

The Union Cabinet has approved the government's 'One Nation, One Election' push, which proposes simultaneous Lok Sabha and Assembly elections, with urban body and panchayat polls to be held within 100 days. It accepted the recommendations of the report of a panel led by former President Ram Nath Kovind.

ONOE would require a common electoral roll for all elections. The Cabinet note reads that the government will initiate detailed discussions throughout the country and constitute an implementation group.

With this, the Modi government has once again given a message of continuity and shown it will not shy away from making bold reforms regardless of the mandate. This is the first step in this direction, with the government hoping to hold simultaneous elections from 2029 onwards. 

The Election Commission of India shied away from holding simultaneous polls for four states—J&K, Haryana, Maharashtra, and Jharkhand—recently primarily due to security reasons. "There are multiple other factors. Rainfall in Maharashtra and the spate of festivals in the state, including Ganesh Chaturthi, Pitrapaksh, Navratri, and Diwali, affect election scheduling," said the Chief Election Commissioner.

The government could face a challenge in passing the bill in the Parliament as, as a constitutional amendment, it requires two-thirds majority support while the NDA has a simple majority in both Houses. 

The ruling party has been arguing that “one nation, one election” is a monumental reform and it would reduce costs, time, and energy. The opposition sees this as an attempt by the BJP to nationalise the state elections and hence emerge as the beneficiary. 

Opposition parties feel BJP riding on the back of its pole position in national politics stands to gain in state elections with “one election," thus displacing the regional parties.

The Prime Minister, chief ministers, and other ministers spend so much time campaigning for national and state elections. This is a criminal wastage of our nation’s time. We are full-time in election mode; this will save us hours, which could be put to productive purposes; this, I feel, is the biggest advantage. 

There are logistical and economic factors that will need to be considered. ECI estimates Rs 10,000 crore is needed every 15 years for new EVMs if simultaneous polls are held. On the other hand, it could add economic output worth Rs 4.5 lakh crore or increase real GDP growth by 1.5% as per the panel report.

Political parties spent Rs. 1.35 lakh crore in 2024 general elections as per reports on campaigning and wooing the voters. In an electoral cycle of 5 years where 30 state/uunion territory elections are held, one can assume a similar amount is spent. 

This aggregates to Rs. 2.7 lakh crore and provides a consumption boost to the economy. If simultaneous polls are held, one leg of Rs. 1.35 lakh crore spent in state elections could be saved by parties, thus robbing the economy of a stimulus. 

Simultaneous polls happened in India for five states in 2014: Telangana, Andhra, Odisha, Sikkim, and Arunachal, and then again for all of them in 2019 and 2024, barring Telangana. 

In all these states, both the Lok Sabha and Vidhan Sabha results mirrored each other.

BJP won in state elections in Arunachal and Odisha and also bagged both Lok Sabha seats and 20/21 seats, respectively, in the two states. Sikkim Kranti Morcha won both state and general elections in Sikkim. The NDA, BJP, TDP, and JSP swept the state as well as Lok Sabha seats.

Simultaneous polls have been happening in Odisha since 2004, in new Andhra (post-reorganisation) since 2014, and all times Lok Sabha and Vidhan Sabha results have mirrored each other.

BJD alone or with BJP as an ally won the state elections in Odisha as well as the majority of seats in Lok Sabha each time in 2004, 2009, 2014, and 2019. TDP won both state and general elections in Andhra in 2014, followed by YSRCP in 2019.

Karnataka also witnessed simultaneous polls in 1999 and 2004. The same trend was visible. Congress won a simple majority in state elections in 1999 as well as maximum seats in Lok Sabha (18/28). BJP emerged as SLP in Vidhan Sabha and went on to win the highest seats in Lok Sabha (18/28).

Even in united Andhra, simultaneous polls took place between 1999 and 2009, and the Lok Sabha results mirrored the Vidhan Sabha results. TDP+BJP won both elections in 1999, while Congress under YSR won in 2004 and 2009. 

One nation, one election used to take place for state and nation from 1952-1967. The Congress party ruled at the centre and in most of the states except for intermittent periods in Kerala and Odisha. It got more than 350 seats in all Lok Sabha elections in 1952, 57 and 62.

The 1967 elections marked the end of an era in Indian politics, the era of the unchallenged supremacy of the Congress. The party could not secure a simple majority in 8 of the 16 state elections, where non-Congress governments were installed. For the first time in Lok Sabha, the Congress could not get 350+ seats, and its tally fell below 300.

Regional parties and breakaway groups dented Congress’s chances in many states, which was also reflected in the Lok Sabha elections. In the states, it lost power; it lost seats in Lok Sabha too, bringing down its tally to 283. Swatantra Party gained 21 seats, BJS (parent of BJP) gained 26 seats, and DMK gained 18 seats. It lost seats in Bihar, Madras, UP, Odisha, Punjab, Kerala, and West Bengal.

The 1967 results and 2014/19/24 results of limited simultaneous polls show that the party that is stronger in states tends to get a benefit in Lok Sabha elections as well. So, the BJP may not necessarily benefit from “one election,” as is being propagated. 

Whichever party is strong in the state and wins the state elections may benefit from simultaneous polls in Lok Sabha elections as well, contrary to popular perception. 

To sum up, the government recently sent the Waqf Bill to a JPC as it did not have the number and for wider consultations. The cabinet clearance is the first step, and the road ahead is long. Some provisions also require ratification of state assemblies; as per the panel report, opposition governments would not play ball. Wider consultations are the way out, as rushing in this matter won’t help. 

Amitabh Tiwari is a political commentator, strategist, and consultant advising political parties and leaders. He was previously a corporate and investment banker.

Disclaimer: The views expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of NDTV Profit or its editorial team.