The Lok Sabha elections for six seats in Mumbai and four in the larger metropolitan area will see a contest involving two Union ministers, sitting and former MPs and MLAs, and a prestige battle between the two Shiv Sena factions led by Chief Minister Eknath Shinde and his former boss Uddhav Thackeray.
The seats in Mumbai going to polls on May 20 are Mumbai South, Mumbai South-Central, Mumbai North-Central, Mumbai North-East, Mumbai North-West and Mumbai North. The three seats in Thane district are Thane, Kalyan and Bhiwandi; while the other seat is Scheduled Tribe-reserved Palghar, which includes the populous Vasai-Virar towns.
Five of the 10 seats in the Mumbai metropolitan region will see a direct fight between the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena and Shiv Sena (UBT). This will be the first major poll where the two factions face-off since the party split in mid-2022.
While Thackeray is banking on the sympathy factor and vote transfers from Congress-NCP, Shinde is running confident of retaining the party's core base and the Hindutva consolidation for the larger alliance. For the two, the Lok Sabha performance will set the stage for the Maharashtra Assembly elections later this year. A poor show by Shinde can even destabilise the Sena-BJP-NCP government in India's most industrialised state.
Other contests include two between BJP and Congress, two between BJP and Shiv Sena (UBT), and one between BJP and Sharad Pawar-led Nationalist Congress Party.
Union Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal and Minister of State for Panchayati Raj, Kapil Patil, have been fielded by the BJP. Goyal will make his electoral debut after being a minister for a decade and serving in the Rajya Sabha since 2010. The investment banker-turned-politician is known to be close to PM Narendra Modi, who entrusted him the additional charge of Minister of Finance briefly in 2018.
Piyush Goyal campaigning in Mumbai's Dahisar. (Source: X profile)
Piyush Goyal campaigning in Mumbai's Dahisar. (Source: X profile)
Cues From Past Election Results
Maharashtra sends 48 MPs to the Lok Sabha, second only to Uttar Pradesh. The 2014 and 2019 general elections were fought by the BJP and undivided Shiv Sena, as part of the National Democratic Alliance against the Congress-NCP's United Progressive Alliance.
The NDA won 41 seats in both elections. It was a clean sweep for the saffron front in the Mumbai region. Both BJP (4) and Shiv Sena (6) bagged all seats contested.
Except the Mumbai North-Central seat, where BJP's Kirit Somaiya was replaced with Poonam Mahajan in 2019, the alliance had their sitting MPs re-elected.
The opposition INDIA bloc faces an uphill task of opening its account in Mumbai, as the average victory margin for NDA in all 10 seats was a solid 24% in 2019. It, thus, requires a significant swing to pull a surprise here.
Notably, the two NDA allies have been comfortable in transferring their votes to the other. While Shiv Sena commands a lead among native, working class Marathi-speakers, the BJP enjoys support from the city's Gujarati and North Indian residents.
Big Contests
Mumbai South: In India's richest Lok Sabha constituency, two-time sitting MP and former Union Minister Arvind Sawant of Shiv Sena (UBT) will contest against Shiv Sena’s Byculla MLA Yamini Jadhav. The high profile seat saw a public tussle between BJP and Shinde during negotiations, with the former keen on fielding its first nominee from the town. Sawant is among the few who remained loyal to the Thackeray clan after the 2022 split.
Mumbai North: Piyush Goyal will make his electoral debut after 14 years of being in Rajya Sabha. The Congress has fielded Bhushan Patil to take on the BJP stalwart.
Mumbai North-Central: BJP denied renomination to sitting MP Poonam Mahajan, the daughter of late BJP stalwart Pramod Mahajan, and fielded eminent lawyer Ujjwal Nikam against Varsha Gaikwad, the four-time Dharavi MLA and Mumbai Congress President. Gaikwad, a prominent Dalit face, rose up the Congress ranks after 2019; while Nikam, a Maratha, was the prosecutor who fought the case against Pakistani terrorist Ajmal Kasab in the 2008 Mumbai terror attack.
Mumbai North-East: The Shiv Sena (UBT) has fielded Sanjay Dina Patil, a former MP of undivided NCP, against Mihir Kotecha, a BJP MLA.
Mumbai North-West: Sitting Shiv Sena MP Gajanan Kirtikar’s son Amol Kirtikar, who has been fielded by Shiv Sena (UBT) will contest against Ravindra Waikar, an MLA, who recently switched sides from Thackeray to Shinde.
Mumbai South-Central: Thackeray has fielded former Rajya Sabha member and loyalist Anil Desai against two-time sitting MP Rahul Shewale, the party leader of Shiv Sena in the Lok Sabha.
Thackeray loyalist Arvind Sawant during a roadshow with Aaditya Thackeray in Worli. (Source: X profile)
Thackeray loyalist Arvind Sawant during a roadshow with Aaditya Thackeray in Worli. (Source: X profile)
Thane: Mumbai's sister city will be another Sena vs Sena fight. Two-time sitting MP Rajan Vichare of Shiv Sena (UBT) will face-off Shinde loyalist Naresh Mhaske. Both Vichare and Mhaske had been former mayors of Thane city. Thane is also the stronghold of Shinde, who was an autorickshaw driver here before entering politics.
Kalyan: Eknath Shinde’s son and two-time sitting MP Dr Shrikant Shinde is contesting against Shiv Sena (UBT)’s Vaishali Darekar-Rane, who had been associated with Raj Thackeray-led MNS before joining Shiv Sena and siding with Thackeray. The high-profile showdown in the Sena stronghold will test the core party voter's loyalty.
Bhiwandi: Kapil Patil of BJP will take on Suresh alias Balyamama Mhatre of NCP (Sharad Pawar) and Nilesh Sambare, who has support of the Prakash Ambedkar-led Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi. The constituency has a sizable Muslim population and seat-sharing negotiations were heady between Congress and Pawar.
Palghar: The ST-quota seat will witness a triangular contest where BJP has fielded former minister, the Late Vishnu Savara's son Dr Hemant Sawara against Shiv Sena (UBT)’s Bharti Kamdi. Sitting Shinde Sena MP Rajendra Gavit returned to the BJP after his party gave up the seat to the national ally.
Eknath Shinde’s son and two-time sitting MP Dr Shrikant Shinde alongside MNS chief Raj Thackeray at a campaign rally in Kalyan. (Source: X profile)
Eknath Shinde’s son and two-time sitting MP Dr Shrikant Shinde alongside MNS chief Raj Thackeray at a campaign rally in Kalyan. (Source: X profile)
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