There has been much debate on how a lower voter turnout can affect an election. Does it help the incumbent or the challenger(s)? A report by Bernstein Research does not see much impact of the low voter turnout on the Lok Sabha election results, unless there is a steep decline in the polling percentage and a significant anti-incumbency adding that it expects the Narendra Modi government (incumbent) to sail through.
It is noteworthy that the low voter turnout has spooked Dalal Street and spiked up the volatility in the stock market. Bernstein has pointed out that the Bharatiya Janata Party seems to do better at translating vote percentage to seats, while the Indian National Congress votes are more spread out across.
A case in point is the 1999 elections when even with a lower vote share than the Congress, the BJP managed to win higher seats. This time could be different as the Congress is contesting on the lowest number of seats in its history and with the help of the regional parties, the overall seat gain could be more significant in proportion to the vote-share gain, Bernstein said in a note dated May 13.
The research firm dissected the voter base into three: seasoned supporter of the National Democratic Alliance, seasoned non-supporters of the NDA and swing voters — the ones who flip quickly and may decide at the last moment whom to vote for.
The last category was instrumental in the decisive BJP victories of 2014 and 2019. It is likely that the abstinence of these swing voters will result in turnout rising or falling as the core vote bank is likely to turn up on the voting day, according to Bernstein.
It pointed out that there were not enough swing votes in favor of the Congress in 2019. "Assuming the core voters will mostly turn up, the loss due to swing voters will likely be for the NDA."
How Swing Voters Decide Election Outcome
(Source: Bernstein)
(Source: Bernstein)
Assumption: If Anti-Incumbency Comes In
The BJP may lose vote share due to voters abstaining or anti-incumbency factors. The Congress will only gain due to the anti-incumbency loss as voters abstaining will not benefit it directly, it said.
A major loss to the BJP seats is unlikely if there is not too much anti-incumbency despite the decline in votes. But if there is voting decline and a large anti-incumbency, there will be a rapid decline in the seats of the BJP at the expense of an even greater risk for the INDIA alliance.
Assumption: Turnout Down, Not Much Anti-Incumbency
This is a case that would most likely be seen. If enough voters don't turn up to vote, but those demoralised swing voters who may not have enough motivation to vote for the NDA this time, even they won't be voting for the Congress in droves either, according to Bernstein.
In this case, even a significant drop in voter turnout becomes insufficient to move the voting percentage much, the research firm said. "We will need a lot more than a decline in voter turnout to have a real chance of (the) opposition coming to power after June 4."
Apples To Apples?
Comparing respective phases does not make sense as the individual mix of constituencies is very different, it said. "A constituency-wise comparison is a better metric that gives mixed results."
Comparison of the current voter turnout with the 2019 data is not fair as the data released immediately does not include the ballot voting, resulting in an apples-to-oranges comparison, according to Bernstein.
It underscored that the last election timing was an aberration in many senses. The voting percentage reached a historic high of 67.4% and the entire national narrative changed at the back of the Balakot airstrikes. "Structurally, a more apt comparison would be with the 2014 general elections."
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