Monsoon Most Likely To Be Above Normal In August–September, Says IMD

Rainfall over the country in August and September is likely to be above normal, the India Meteorological Department said on Thursday.

Rainfall during the second half of the southwest monsoon season is most likely to be in excess of 106% of the long-period average, the IMD said in its forecast.

While most parts of the country are likely to receive normal to above-normal rain, many parts of the northeast, adjoining areas of east India, Ladakh, Saurashtra, Kutch, and some isolated pockets of central and peninsular India are likely to receive below normal rainfall, according to the Met office.

• In August, rainfall over the entire country is most likely to be normal between 94% and 106% of the LPA, the IMD forecasted.

• During August, while most parts of the country are likely to receive normal to above-normal rain, many areas in southern parts of central and adjoining northern peninsular India, northeast and adjoining areas of east India, some parts of the northwest and south peninsular India could see below normal rainfall, it said.

• The month is also likely to see above-normal maximum temperatures over most parts of the country, except for some areas in the Gangetic plains, central India, and the southeast coast of India, where normal to below-normal maximum temperatures are likely, the IMD said.

• Above-normal minimum temperatures are likely over most parts of the country except southeast Peninsular India, where normal to below-normal minimum temperatures are likely during August 2024.

Currently, neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation conditions are prevailing in the equatorial Pacific region. La Nina is likely to develop in the second half of the monsoon season towards end of August. Presently, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole conditions are prevailing over the Indian Ocean. The climate models forecast indicates that these neutral IOD conditions are likely to continue until the end of the monsoon season.