Passenger Vehicle Sales Slowed Down In February, Say Analysts

The price hike due to real driving emission norms was lower than expected in the diesel car category.

Vehicles at a junction following the traffic signal. (Source: pxhere.com)

The dispatch of passenger vehicles to dealerships slowed down in February with sharp moderation in retail sales, according to analysts.

The higher discounts compared to the same period last year, the reduced waiting periods for key models, and the decline in luxury car sales indicate a slowdown in the category, brokerages said. They expect passenger vehicle retail sales growth to moderate sharply to mid- to high-single digits.

Sales of cars and utility vehicles were the first to rebound during the pandemic on demand for personal mobility. The category has largely driven auto growth as rural slowdown hurt the two-wheeler segment.

Motilal Oswal, however, said there has been an 8-10% drop in inquiries across passenger vehicle companies, which is expected to result in a sequential volume decline for the month.

This, however, may also mean that automakers may not resort to price hikes in April due to new emission norms as it might impact demand.

The price hike due to real driving emission norms was lower than expected in the diesel car category, Nomura said. While there are expectations of further price hikes from April, the likelihood is low as any further hikes may impact demand, it added.

In the two-wheeler segment, the demand remained better in urban markets, with marriage season demand partially offsetting the weakness in the rural belt.

Nomura expects a rebalancing of growth with a slowdown in passenger vehicles and a revival in two-wheeler demand amid lower inflation and a better crop harvest.

But analysts also expressed concern about weaker rural incomes due to already-flagged risks to the monsoon from the El Nino effect.

The commercial vehicle industry is likely to register strong sales in February as well, with healthy demand fueled by the infrastructure and construction sectors.

While some analysts observed pre-buying amid expectations of price hikes in April due to new emission norms, others warned of a mixed outlook as demand from agriculture seems to have declined.

The tractors are likely to be strong in February, with double-digit growth. However, the future is a little uncertain.

"Due to sluggish cash flows from some regions and the anticipation of severe effects from this year's heatwaves, the agricultural sector has been numb and gloomy of late," Motilal Oswal said.

Nomura expects tractor sales to remain flat in the upcoming fiscal. The leading manufacturer, Mahindra and Mahindra Ltd., has already cautioned the industry about seeing cyclically muted growth ahead.

Watch LIVE TV , Get Stock Market Updates, Top Business , IPO and Latest News on NDTV Profit.
WRITTEN BY
Vinay Khulbe
Vinay writes on automobile, aviation and developments related to mobility f... more
GET REGULAR UPDATES