Global Trade War, Crude Oil Prices Likely To Decide Rupee Value: Experts

Global trade war and crude oil prices are going to influence the Indian rupee's movement against the US dollar in the coming week, experts said. Rupee touched an all-time low on Thursday by breaching the 69-mark vis-a-vis US dollar. On Friday, rupee closed at Rs. 68.47 against the dollar. "Going forward, unless oil prices come off substantially, we expect the rupee to follow a path of depreciation against most of the developed world currencies, especially against the US dollar," Anindya Banerjee, deputy vice-president for currency and interest rates with Kotak Securities, told news agency IANS.

"Over the next couple of months, USD/INR may build a base between 67 and 69 on spot, before heading towards 71/72 before the FY19 draws to a close. Over the next week, a range of 67.80 to 68.80 can play out."

"We see the Indian rupee headed towards the 69.2-mark against the US dollar. The pressure on current account deficit, rising crude oil prices and uncertain political scenario are the main reasons for the rupee's depreciation," the agency cited Prathamesh Mallya, chief analyst for commodities and currencies at Angel Commodities Broking, as saying. 

Lately, high crude oil prices and geopolitical developments have weakened the Indian rupee which had depreciated to its all-time low during the week ended June 29 at 69 per US dollar-mark.

It closed at 68.47, weaker by 63 paise from its previous week's close of 67.84 per greenback.

"Over the week the rupee fell 0.92 per cent... As the global equities market seem to have stabilised for the time being, the rupee may not breach the low of 69.09 in a hurry. However, it may remain under pressure later based on evolving global developments," said Deepak Jasani, head of retail research at HDFC Securities. 

The rupee is among the worst-performing currencies in Asia and has shed almost eight per cent this year, followed closely by the Philippine peso.

The current slide in the rupee will not be prolonged as it has adequate "firepower" of foreign exchange reserves to deal with the current volatility, news agency Reuters had earlier cited Economic Affairs Secretary Subhash Chandra Garg as saying.

The volatility is being driven by global factors, including proposed US sanctions on Iran and the mismatch in demand and supply of oil, he had said.