The much talked about demographic dividend or the benefits of a young working age population are on the verge of reaching its peak for India. The economic survey for 2016-17 points out the changing trends in the world's working age population and how India's young working age population is likely to peak in 2020.
"The growth boost from the demographic dividend is likely to peak within the next five years, as India's share of working age population plateaus," says the economic survey.
Giving example of East Asian economies ( China, Singapore, Japan) Brazil and Russia among others, the survey said "Economic research in the last two decades has suggested that the growth surges in East Asia may have been driven by demographic changes".
But India' non-working age ratio is likely to peak at 1.7, a much lower level than Brazil and China, both of which sustained a ratio greater than 1.7 for at least 25 years.
This according to the survey means that "Unlike the East Asian successes, India should not expect to see growth surges or growth deceleration of the magnitudes experienced by the East Asian countries, at least not on account of the demographic dividend," the survey added.
Positives
Even though the demographic dividend for India is set to peak for India in the next 4-5 years, states like Bihar, Jammu and Kashmir, Haryana, and Maharashtra would prove to be positive outliers as these states "can expect a greater demographic dividend over the coming years than would be suggested by their current level of income," the survey said.
The document prepared by the chief economic adviser suggests that labour mobility within India from positive outlier states to other states "would in effect reduce this demographic imbalance".
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