(Bloomberg) -- The dollar’s 2024 bull-run hit its first weekly setback after global growth and risk sentiment got a boost from blockbuster earnings by stock-market darling Nvidia Corp.
A Bloomberg gauge of the greenback has slid 0.1% since last Friday after rallying seven straight weeks in a 2.6% advance through Feb. 16. Treasury yields at year-to-date highs failed to ignite demand for the US currency as the ICE dollar index also dropped 0.3% this week, its worst performance in two months. Most G-10 currencies advanced.
Data that suggested a soft-landing for the American economy and better-than-expected growth outlook in Europe dented the appeal of traditional safe-haven currencies, weakening the dollar, franc and yen. Demand for riskier assets further weighed on the currencies as US, European and Japanese equity gauges hit all-time highs, propelled by a Nvidia-fueled rally that saw the stock top a $2 trillion valuation.
“Greater growth stability outside the US would limit dollar gains and potentially set the backdrop for some pullbacks,”said Dominic Schnider, head of global foreign exchange and commodities at UBS Global Wealth Management in Switzerland. “Since economic data outside the US have room for further upside surprises, the impact of better US data could be mitigated,” he added.
Schnider pointed to Thursday’s euro-area private-sector activity, which hit an eight-month high with the help of solid services expansion. The common currency advanced against the greenback for seven straight sessions through Thursday, its longest winning streak since July.
China’s official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index, scheduled for release next week, could also bring some good news for global growth stability since “consensus expectations are undemanding at this point,” he noted.
Investors’ fervor for artificial intelligence and Nvidia in particular also weighed on safer currencies.
“It is remarkable how the performance of a single company like Nvidia can resonate across various sectors and asset classes,” Charu Chanana, head of FX strategy at Saxo Markets wrote in a research note from Singapore Friday. “The enthusiasm generated by Nvidia’s performance has spilled over into the foreign exchange market as well, via the risk sentiment channel, pushing the risk-on currencies while weakening the risk-off ones.”
And that bumpy ride might not be over yet. “Nvidia-mania looks set to extend,” according to Chanana.
Nonetheless, some Wall Street strategists see a higher near-term path for the greenback given a divergent growth outlook compared to other Group-of-10 nations.
“Inflation is coming down faster than expected everywhere but weak growth in Europe, Japan and China will help provide moderate support for the dollar,” wrote MUFG strategists led by Derek Halpenny in a currency outlook released Wednesday.
For now traders are left to watch technical signals from US Treasuries, two-year yields will be key. Brad Bechtel, global head of foreign exchange at Jefferies said if rates on the shorter-dated bond go above their 200-day moving average that should limit the currency’s declines.
Economists are forecasting the dollar will fall below last year’s lows before 2024 is over.
(Updates chart, prices throughout.)
More stories like this are available on bloomberg.com
©2024 Bloomberg L.P.
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