Economic Survey Says Notes Ban Will Hit Growth, But Recovery Soon

The survey expects India to remain fastest growing economy The survey estimates Agriculture sector to grow at 4.1 per cent in FY17 Survey proposes a central agency to deal with high ticket NPAs

  • "Economic growth expected to return to normal as new currency notes in required quantities come back into circulation," the finance ministry tweeted as it published details of the survey.
  • "In 2016 we survived shocks like the US presidential elections and demonetisation" said Arvind Subramanian, chief economic adviser to the finance ministry, after the Economic Survey was tabled in Parliament, thanking his "fantastic boss" Arun Jaitley.
  • The forecasts of the Survey,  which lays out the risks and challenges that the economy faces in the next financial year, will underpin Finance Minister Arun Jaitley's annual Budget on Wednesday, in which he is expected to offer some tax sops ahead of elections in five states to soothe the blow to jobs and business inflicted by the notes ban.
  • The survey said pay rise for government employees and muted tax receipts could put pressure on the fiscal deficit in the coming fiscal year. A sharp rise in prices could also cap the headroom to ease monetary policy, it said.
  • The report also knocked down a widely-touted proposal to introduce a Universal Basic Income or UBI, saying it would cost between 4 or 5 per cent of the GDP. It described such a policy as "a powerful idea, but not ripe for implementation".
  • The survey lists three downside risks to the Indian economy in the next financial year - impact of demonetisation, higher oil prices and rise in global trade tensions. Despite these risks, it estimates, India will remain the fastest growing major economy in the world.
  • The IMF has said that India has lost its fastest growing economy's status to China this year by 100 basis points at 6.6 per cent due to demonetisation.
  • Mr Subramanian questioned the decision of ratings agencies of not upgrading the Indian economy despite India achieving a slew of reforms.
  • The survey estimates the Agriculture sector to grow at 4.1 per cent in 2016-17 as opposed to 1.2 per cent in 2015-16; the higher growth in agriculture sector has been projected on the back of better monsoon rains in the current year.
  • The Survey has proposed a centralized Public Sector Asset Rehabilitation Agency (PARA) that could take charge of the largest, most difficult cases, of non performing assets in the banking system. This means that the government wants to intervene directly into the high ticket NPAs of the corporate sector.
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