(Bloomberg Opinion) -- When Ursula von der Leyen assumed the presidency of the European Commission four years ago, she promised Europe would be a geopolitical powerhouse. And, as members of the European Union united to oppose Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in early 2022, the continent certainly did seem a solid pillar of a global order menaced by autocracies in Russia and China — not to mention other enemies. French President Emmanuel Macron soon started to speak of Europe’s “strategic autonomy,” in part as a hedge against Donald Trump’s re-election in 2024.
But Russia has survived its war better than expected. Squabbling European and US leaders threaten crucial aid to Ukraine. Trump’s fortunes are on the rise. And Europe now looks less like a democratic bulwark against Trumpist populism than a likely prelude to it.
Confused, fractious and clumsy leadership in Brussels is partly to blame. Von der Leyen deserves her share of criticism. She flew to Tunisia in July with Italy’s right-wing Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni to sign a shady deal with the country’s dictator Kais Saied, effectively paying him to stop migrants from crossing the Mediterranean. Not only did Saied renege, the EU’s own foreign policy chief Josep Borrell denounced the deal as “unilateral.”
Meanwhile, European Council President Charles Michel tried to make peace between leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan in July. Within weeks, Azerbaijan had ethnically cleansed 100,000 Armenians from its territory. Europe, dependent on the aggressor country for natural gas, failed to act.
More recently, the Gaza war has further exposed the EU’s fundamental disunity. Six days after Hamas’ attack on Israel in early October, von der Leyen made an unscheduled visit to Jerusalem and declared Europe’s unconditional solidarity with Israel. Colleagues and rivals, including Michel and Borrell, issued exasperated criticisms. Hundreds of people on the EU’s payroll signed a joint letter protesting her failure to ask Israel to observe international law in its response to Hamas’ attack.
In a parallel blunder, European Enlargement Commissioner Oliver Varhelyi announced on X, formerly known as Twitter, the suspension of €691 million in EU aid to the Palestinian Authority. Paris, Dublin, and Madrid immediately complained about what they saw as collective punishment of Palestinians for the crimes of Hamas. After a few chaotic hours, Borrell was promising the PA more rather than less aid.
Such fiascos could plausibly be blamed on lack of coordination. But officials such as Varhelyi and von der Leyen may only be channelling the main political currents of their native countries. Varhelyi was nominated to his position by Hungary’s authoritarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who happens to be the closest European ally of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Von der Leyen’s political mentor is former German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who famously declared Israel’s security to be a “Staatsräson,” or raison d’etat, of her nation.
Germany has blocked other European attempts to jointly call for a ceasefire in Gaza, even though Macron has compelling domestic political reasons for doing so and Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez is now accusing Israel of indiscriminate killings. The overall picture of incoherence is made worse by sharpening left-right antagonisms before next summer’s elections to the European Parliament, which help explain why Italy and Spain were exchanging extraordinary insults last week.
Such rancorous divisions make Europe look feeble and irrelevant internationally. Israel is now openly denouncing the leaders of Spain, Belgium, and Ireland as “supporters of terrorism.” Last week at Doha airport, German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier was kept waiting in the blazing sun at the door of his plane for almost half an hour before a junior Qatari minister arrived to receive him. At the COP28 climate summit in Dubai, no Arab leader was available for Macron’s proposed roundtable conference to discuss the Gaza war.
Earlier this year, Chinese authorities pointedly belittled von der Leyen when she accompanied a far more accommodating Macron on a state visit to China. China and Russia (and other non-Western countries) will respect Europe as a geopolitical force only when it speaks with one voice, ideally in tune with the US.
But, as extremist parties advance across Europe, the value of speaking and acting in concert is no longer so clear. Fearmongering over migration, Muslims, and climate change could propel demagogues from Greece to the Netherlands into the European Parliament next year. A Trump victory in November could headline a far-right capture of the democratic West.
The world would then embark on a treacherous new phase in history. And those with still some hope for democracy might end up longing for less rather than more European unity.
More From Bloomberg Opinion:
- Don’t Let Israel-Hamas War Stifle Academic Freedom: Noah Feldman
- Small ‘Hot’ Wars Will Define the Second Cold War: Hal Brands
- How the Populists Learned to Love Their Enemies: Max Hastings
This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.
Pankaj Mishra is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist. He is author, most recently, of “Run and Hide.”
More stories like this are available on bloomberg.com/opinion
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