US Election 2024: Banks To Energy—The Wall Street Stocks Likely To Swing On Trump Vs Harris Outcome
Here's a look at the US stocks and sectors seen volatile to the Donald Trump versus Kamala Harris presidential poll outcome.
Wall Street, which has largely been upbeat ahead of the US presidential election, may witness a short-term rally if former president Donald Trump defeats Democrat rival Kamala Harris in the high-stake electoral showdown, analysts say.
"The immediate reaction will be positive as Trump's win will provide a boost to the US indices," Kranthi Bathini, director of equity strategy at WealthMills Securities Pvt., said. "This rally will be short-lived as long-term movement of stocks will depend on his policies after he takes charge."
On the flip side, a Harris win may lead to a short-term decline, he said, but added that such a negative sentiment would last for a very limited period.
Wall Street observers point out that there are several stocks that could swing either way in the immediate aftermath of the US elections.
Here's a look at the sectors and stocks seen volatile to the Trump versus Harris poll outcome.
Energy: Chevron Corp., Exxon Mobil Corp. and ConocoPhillips are among the stocks that could benefit in case of a Trump win, as the Republican candidate has vowed ease in regulations for the oil and gas sector, and increase in fracking and oil exploration across the US.
Real estate: Stocks of home developers like DR Horton Inc., Lennar Corp., PulteGroup Inc., KB Home, Zillow Group and Toll Brothers Inc. could climb in case of Harris beating Trump, as she has promised to incentivise first-time house buyers and introduce measures to boost affordable housing.
Banks: Stocks of top lenders like JPMorgan Chase & Co., Bank of America Corp. and Wells Fargo & Co. stand to gain in view of tax cuts and looser regulations in case of a Trump win, Bank of America analysts were reported as saying by Reuters. Trump's push for lower Federal Reserve lending rates could also lift the banking stocks.
Mega-caps: Trump, during the campaign trail, said he plans to cut the corporate tax rate from 21% to 15%. This will improve the margins of top firms like Microsoft Corp., Apple Inc. and Alphabet Inc. These stocks are expected to temporarily rally in case of a red wave on Nov. 5.
Renewables: Stocks of renewable energy firms like NextEra Energy Inc., Plug Power Inc. and Bloom Energy Corp. could surge in case of a Harris win, as she plans to continue incumbent President Joe Biden's push towards green energy. She has promised to adhere to the commitments made by the US under the Paris Agreement, which requires a cut down on fossil fuels by 2035.
Healthcare: Shares of insurers like Humana Inc. and UnitedHealth Group Inc. could jump if the Democrats retain the White House as Harris has proposed to expand insurance coverage. However, stocks of drugmakers like Pfizer Inc., Eli Lilly & Co., and Merck & Co. could dip as she plans to impose a cap on prescription drug prices.
Prison operators: With crackdown on "illegal immigration" at the core of Trump's electoral campaign, stocks of firms like Geo Group Inc. and Corecivic Inc.—which operate private prisons—are likely to jump if he wins the presidential polls.
Firearms: Stocks of firearm manufacturers like Vista Outdoor Inc. and Smith & Wessons Brands Inc. could be blazing if voters opt for Trump to run the White House. The former president has vowed to strengthen the second amendment to the Constitution—which guarantees Americans to bear arms—and his campaign has indicated the reversal of some of the curbs brought by the Biden regime.
Crypto stocks: Cryptocurrency is seen as one of the biggest sectoral gainers if Trump wins the presidential election. Positioning himself as a pro-crypto candidate, Trump announced in July that he intends to see the US as the "cryptocurrency" capital of the world. If he wins the White House race, cryptocurrency-related stocks like Coinbase Global Inc. and Riot Platforms Inc. are expected to rally.
The counting of votes will begin late on Tuesday. after the voting concludes. The pre-poll surveys project a cliffhanger contest. As per the latest update shared by ABC News-538 poll tracker on Nov. 3, Harris took a 0.9 percentage point lead over Trump.
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