US Election 2024: Rooting For Donald Trump May Be Misplaced, Says Ramesh Damani
Damani pointed out that for Vice President Kamala Harris to win, she would need to secure the 'Blue Wall'.
The 2024 US Election is "the most important election in the history of the world", due to the significant global influence of the US President, according to veteran Indian investor Ramesh Damani.
"The US Presidential Election is the most important in the world because the President is the leader of the free world," Damani said. This election will be decided by the Electoral College, and "there are balance 60-70 votes that matter."
Damani pointed out that for Vice President Kamala Harris to win, she would need to secure the 'Blue Wall', a term used to describe the traditionally Democratic states that have been key to past victories.
Two states in particular, Iowa and New Hampshire, may surprise observers, he noted, with Iowa being a state that rarely swings Democratic, but where Harris has gained significant ground.
Iowa is usually a tough state for Democrats, "but Kamala is ahead in Iowa which is very rare for a Democrat", Damani said, highlighting the dynamic and unpredictable nature of the race. There are still many unknowns, but the Electoral College will ultimately decide the outcome, he said.
Market players in India are rooting for a victorious Donald Trump, but this could be misplaced, according to Damani, as "he has a very inward and unsecular view of America's role".
"After World War II, it was on America's broad shoulders that the world prospered" he said, emphasising the country's role in maintaining global trade and stability. "America is a land of immigrants... and to remove that characteristic would be damaging... On balance, I would prefer Kamala Harris."
Damani also touched upon the performance of the stock market under various US administrations, noting that the two best periods for equities were during the tenures of Bill Clinton and Barack Obama. "Between Joe Biden's four years and Trump's four years...there has been not any great difference in Dow's performance."
"I am not sure what a second Trump presidency brings because I am very apprehensive about it...he will be the first emperor of America not president. If he wins this time, he will be an absolute power to himself," Damani said.
One of the biggest challenges for any future president will be addressing the ballooning US national debt, he added.
While the global and domestic markets have been facing volatility, Damani remains optimistic about India’s economic prospects. "The market is just a bit tired; it's been running a marathon...We may see a dull last quarter of the year...and then next quarter will be more upbeat assessment. I think the market is falling on its own weight, not because of US or other factors."
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Damani also encouraged long-term investors to stay the course. "It pays to be invested in India. The volatility is part of the business...The key is to remain invested in good businesses and ride out the volitality." He cited Public Sector Undertakings as an example. "PSU basket has gone up 20 times, and what we are seeing now is just a correction."
