US Election 2024 Outcome: Experts Discuss Early Trends, Say Indian Markets Shielded
Indian markets are the most shielded from US elections, as it is a closed economy with strongly managed currency and a lot of domestic impetus in equity flows, said Barclays' Mitul Kotecha.
Donald Trump is leading the US presidential elections race, but some experts think it is too early to call a winner. Irrespective of the poll result, Indian markets are the most shielded, they said.
Mitul Kotecha, head of forex and EM Macro Strategy Asia at Barclays, said Indian markets were the most shielded from US elections, given that it is a closed economy with strongly managed currency and a lot of domestic impetus in equity flows.
At the same time, he noted a firming dollar could have negative repercussions for the Asian and Indian markets. "A Trump win would see the dollar sharply higher. We have already been seeing that as markets are adding Trump premium," he said, adding the US yield curve would move higher.
However, Harris' win will push yields lower. "Tariff implementation by Trump could have implications for Fed. Currently, we believe the Fed will go in for a rate cut in December, and thrice next year," he said. It may result in Fed not cutting aggressively, he added.
Nish Acharya, chief executive officer of Equal Innovation, said it was too early to call a winner as there were several large states still left to call. He expects millions of votes from California and New York to swing Harris' way, and said Thursday would determine a trend.
For Seth Freeman, managing director of B Riley Advisory Services, a Trump win is concerning and unbelievable. "Here we are, with Trump with felony charges, potentially becoming the president," he said.
"Indian exporters could see the impact of potentially higher tariffs," he said and added that tariff hikes will also lead to a rise in US consumer prices.
Meanwhile, Republican candidate Donald Trump appears on track to win the US Presidential race as news agencies called key states in his favour, including the swing state of North Carolina.
Trump has won in crucial states like Florida, Tennessee, and Oklahoma, according to news agency Associated Press. Meanwhile, Kamala Harris has bagged states like Maryland, Rhode Island, Massachusetts and New York.
