US Election 2024: In Tight Trump Vs Harris Race, Poll Tracker Shows Razor-Thin Margin In 7 Swing States

Less than a week remains for the high-stake electoral showdown between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, seen as as one of the closest US presidential elections in recent history.

The average of leading pre-poll surveys shows the two candidates are separated by less than two percentage points. The contest turns more intense in the swing states—those with a history of flipping between Republicans and Democrats—as the surveys show a razor-thin margin in these provinces.

While the electorate in all 50 American provinces vote in the presidential elections, the race to the White House largely boils down to the outcome in the seven swing states. Most other provinces have a history of being ideologically and electorally aligned with one of the two mainstream political parties.

Trump presently holds an edge over Harris in the battle for the swing states, according to ABC News-538 poll tracker, which shares an aggregate of the major pre-election surveys. The former president is ahead in four of the seven provinces, whereas the incumbent vice president is leading in three states, as per the update shared at 8:21 p.m. (Eastern Time) on Oct. 29.

The seven swing states—Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Wisconsin, Nevada, Michigan and Arizona—account for 93 out of the 538 electoral college votes. A presidential candidate needs at least 270 electoral college votes to win the election.

Here's a closer look at how the battle for the swing states is stacked up:

In Pennsylvania, where 19 electoral college votes are up for grabs, Trump has taken a 0.2% lead over Harris, according to the ABC News-538 poll tracker. The Republican candidate is ahead with 47.9% support in the surveys, compared to 47.7% support for his Democrat counterpart.

Once a Democrat stronghold, Pennsylvania turned into a swing state in 2016 when Trump eroded the blue bastion by a thin margin of 0.7% votes. However, Biden reclaimed the state in 2020.

Georgia, another crucial swing state, accounts for 16 electoral college votes. Here, the poll tracker shows Trump taking a 1.8% lead over Harris in the surveys. He has a 48.8% support as compared to 47% support for the incumbent vice president.

A Republican stronghold since 1992, the province was won by the Democrats in 2020 with a narrow margin. Trump, who alleged foul play, was later charged with attempting to interfere in the state's election process by allegedly pressurising the polling officials to find "evidence" to overturn Biden's lead.

North Carolina, which also accounts for 16 electoral college votes, could be going in Trump's way as the former president holds a 1% lead in the surveys, the poll tracker showed. He has a 48.3% support as compared to 47.3% for Harris.

Although Democrats last won the state in 2008, analysts count it as a swing state due to the change in demography. The 2020 census showed the population growing over 10 million and becoming more diverse, which in turn benefits the Democrats.

As per the pre-election surveys, Harris is leading by 0.8% in Michigan, a crucial swing state with 15 electoral college votes. She has a 48% support as compared to 47.2% support for Trump, the ABC News-538 poll tracker stated in its last update.

Long seen as a Democratic bastion, Trump won the state in 2016 by a narrow margin. The outcome was reversed four years later, when Biden reclaimed the state. This time, Arab-Americans, who comprise more than 200,000 of Michigan voters, have marked their angst against the Democrats for their handling of the Israel–Hamas war. A top Muslim cleric of Michigan, along with a mayor from the community, have extended support to Trump.

Arizona, with 11 electoral college votes, could turn red in the Nov. 5 election as Trump is ahead by 2.2% in the pre-poll surveys. Trump is presently favoured by 48.8% in the surveys, compared to 46.6% supporting Harris, as per the poll tracker.

Arizona, which shares a border with Mexico, was won by Biden with a slim margin of about 10,000 votes in 2020. Trump's campaign team is hopeful of reversing the outcome this time with the alleged discontentment among locals over the Democrat's immigration policy.

As per the poll tracker, Harris presently holds a slim 0.4% lead in the pre-election surveys. The support for Harris is seen at 48% versus 47.6% for Trump, the poll tracker showed.

Wisconsin, known for its shifting electoral preferences, elected Trump by a narrow 21,000-vote margin in 2016. However, Biden turned the tide in 2020 with a 23,000-vote margin win.

In this swing state, with six electoral college votes, Harris holds a slim lead of 0.2% in the pre-election surveys. She is presently projected to have the support of 47.6% of survey participants as against 47.4% backing Trump, the poll tracker showed.

Although Nevada has never given a majority vote to any Republican candidate since 2004, analysts see it as a swing state as Trump was able to cut down the losing margin to around 30,000 votes in 2020. His prospects appear stronger this time, as he has made headways with a section of the province's Hispanic voters.