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India Meteorological Department has forecast a fourth straight year of normal monsoon in 2023.
India Meteorological Department has forecast a fourth straight year of normal monsoon in 2023.
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Southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall over the country, between June and September, is likely to be 96% of the long-period average, with a model error of plus or minus 5%, according to IMD.
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IMD classifies 'normal rainfall' between 96% and 104% of the LPA. As such, there is a 67% probability for the monsoon to be normal to above normal.
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Normal to below-normal rainfall is likely over some areas of northwest India, parts of west central India, and pockets of northeast India.
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However, private weather forecaster Skymet expects the upcoming monsoon to be below normal.
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A below-normal monsoon poses possibly the largest downside risk to the Indian economy and potential global slowdown, given that the monsoon rain irrigates more than half of the nation's farmlands.
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