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ICICI Securities Report
We expect Q4 FY24 earnings to be a mixed bag for metal companies. Key points:
Ferrous companies are likely to face the double whammy of lower prices and higher coking coal cost;
non-ferrous players are likely to benefit from lower thermal coal cost; and
NMDC may benefit from higher realisation/volume while Coal India is likely to see lower profitability owing to e-auction premium coming off.
Going ahead, we expect better times for ferrous players as coking coal price has come off (will be reflected in P&L from Q1 FY25) and demand post general elections is likely to improve.
In case of non-ferrous players, we see macro challenges receding, and hence, expect higher London Metal Exchange prices.
Our key picks in the sector are Jindal Steel and Power Ltd. (Buy; target price: Rs 985), Jindal Stainless Ltd. (Buy; target price: Rs 770) and Shyam Metalics (Buy; target price: Rs 815).
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