India's GDP Growth To Decelerate To 4.5-5.0% In H2; FY24 Growth Seen At 6.0%: ICRA

BQ Prime’s special research section collates quality and in-depth equity and economy research reports from across India’s top brokerages, asset managers and research agencies. These reports offer BQ Prime’s subscribers an opportunity to expand their understanding of companies, sectors and the economy..ICRA Research Report.India’s economic activity has displayed a healthy momentum in H1 FY24, supported by the favorable base, robust domestic demand and continued resilience in consumption of contact-intensive services. However, the pace of gross domestic product growth is likely to decelerate in H2 FY24 on account of the impact of uneven and sub-par monsoons on agriculture output and the rural economy, lagged effects of monetary tightening on borrower household budgets, narrowing differentials in commodity prices with year-ago levels, continued drag stemming from the weakness in external demand, a potential slowdown in the Government’s capital spending ahead of the 2024 General Elections, and dissipation of the favorable base. Overall, we expect the GDP to grow by 6.0% in FY24, with a moderation from over 7.0% estimated for H1 FY24 to 4.5-5.0% in H2 FY24, well below the Monetary Policy Committee’s forecast of 5.7-6.0% for the second half of the fiscal. We believe that the emerging risks to inflation on account of food items and rising crude oil prices are likely to lead to a hawkish pause from the MPC in the upcoming October 2023 meeting. Limited fiscal concerns and India’s inclusion in the Global Bond Index in early-FY25 are estimated to cap the 10-year G-sec yield in the near term; we expect the yield to trade at 7.00-7.25% in the remainder of CY 2023..Click on the attachment to read the full report:.Government To Borrow Rs 6.55 Lakh Crore In Second Half, Sticks To FY24 Plan.DISCLAIMERThis report is authored by an external party. BQ Prime does not vouch for the accuracy of its contents nor is responsible for them in any way. The contents of this section do not constitute investment advice. For that you must always consult an expert based on your individual needs. The views expressed in the report are that of the author entity and do not represent the views of BQ Prime..Users have no license to copy, modify, or distribute the content without permission of the Original Owner.

India's GDP Growth To Decelerate To 4.5-5.0% In H2; FY24 Growth Seen At 6.0%: ICRA

Momentum of Government capex may moderate in H2 FY24, ahead of the General Elections.

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India's GDP Growth To Decelerate To 4.5-5.0% In H2; FY24 Growth Seen At 6.0%: ICRA

Momentum of Government capex may moderate in H2 FY24, ahead of the General Elections.

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