India's Economic Activity Strengthened In October; But Could Start Weakening From November: Motilal Oswal

BQ Prime’s special research section collates quality and in-depth equity and economy research reports from across India’s top brokerages, asset managers and research agencies. These reports offer BQ Prime’s subscribers an opportunity to expand their understanding of companies, sectors and the economy..Motilal Oswal Report.Preliminary estimates indicate that India's economic activity index for gross value added strengthened further. It grew at a 14-month high of 9.2% YoY in October 2023 (versus 8.6%/2.5% YoY in September 2023/Oct-22). The acceleration in growth (versus Oct-22) was led by a sustained broad-based growth in the industrial sector (up 13% YoY), and a strong growth in the services sector (up 9.7% YoY) in Oct-23. On the contrary, farm sector growth remained muted at 1.8% YoY in Oct-23.However, EAI-GDP growth decelerated to a seven-month low of 3.0% YoY in Oct-23 (versus 8.7%/1.8% YoY in Sep-23/Oct-22). The slowdown in growth was led by consumption, which decelerated to 2.5% YoY in Oct-23 (versus 4.9%/6.2% Sep-23/Oct-22), and contraction in net exports as imports grew much faster than exports. On the other hand, investment growth jumped up to 12.5% YoY in Oct-23 (versus 4.4%/6.1% in Sep-23/Oct-22). Excluding fiscal spending, EAI-GDP grew 4.5% in Oct-23 versus 9.1% in Sep-23.High-frequency indicators for Nov-23 suggest a slowdown in momentum with six out of ten high frequency indicators reflecting a decline in economic activity. Rail freight traffic and rail passenger traffic witnessed contraction for the first time in four months. Commercial vehicle/passenger vehicle sales growth and power generation growth decelerated sharply in Nov-23. Additionally, water reservoir level continued to contract for the ninth consecutive month. On the other hand, manufacturing PMI increased, Vaahan registrations witnessed a double-digit growth, toll collections and air cargo traffic remained robust. India's real GDP growth came in at a much higher rate of 7.6% in Q2 FY24, beating all estimates. Our calculations suggest that EAI-GVA growth remained strong at 9.2% in Oct-23. High frequency indicators for Nov-23, however, suggest a deceleration in growth. Therefore, we expect growth to ease to 5.8% YoY in Q3 FY24. Despite this, we do expect some slowdown in growth in H2 FY24..Click on the attachment to read the full report:.India Strategy For December, Top Idea Picks For Large, Mid, SmallCap Stocks: Motilal Oswal.DISCLAIMERThis report is authored by an external party. BQ Prime does not vouch for the accuracy of its contents nor is responsible for them in any way. The contents of this section do not constitute investment advice. For that you must always consult an expert based on your individual needs. The views expressed in the report are that of the author entity and do not represent the views of BQ Prime..Users have no license to copy, modify, or distribute the content without permission of the Original Owner.

India's Economic Activity Strengthened In October; But Could Start Weakening From November: Motilal Oswal

Preliminary estimates indicate that India's economic activity index for gross value added strengthened further.

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India's Economic Activity Strengthened In October; But Could Start Weakening From November: Motilal Oswal

Preliminary estimates indicate that India's economic activity index for gross value added strengthened further.

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