Gujarat State Petronet Q1 Review - Result Beats Expectations On Higher Volumes; Maintain Hold: Systematix

NDTV Profit’s special research section collates quality and in-depth equity and economy research reports from across India’s top brokerages, asset managers and research agencies. These reports offer NDTV Profit’s subscribers an opportunity to expand their understanding of companies, sectors and the economy..Systematix Research Report.Gujarat State Petronet Ltd.'s Q1 FY25 Ebitda/profit after tax was slightly higher than expected on the back of higher-than-forecasted volume and lower-than-estimated other expenses. GSPL repeated strong volume growth of 24% YoY/9.1% QoQ to 36.4 million metric standard cubic metre per day, led by a sharp rise in the power segment 57.9% YoY (116% QoQ), followed by fertilizer 30% YoY (-3.4% QoQ) and city gas distribution 20.8% YoY (10.2% QoQ). Petroleum and Natural Gas Regulatory Board released an order tariff in April 2024 for revising the levelized tariff of GSPL HP gas grid from Rs 34/metric million British thermal unit to Rs 18.1/mmbtu. The revised tariff was applicable from May 1, 2024, hence the implied tariff dipped to Rs 0.98/standard cubic metre from earlier Rs 1.33/scm in Q4 FY24. Consequently, the revenue declined sharply by 19.7% YoY to Rs 3.5 billion (-30.1% QoQ), while opex/scm saw a significant drop of 58.9% YoY/62% QoQ (supported by a decline in gas transmission expense) due to which Ebitda was down by just 10.5% YoY/20.4% QoQ to Rs 3 billion. We raise our volume estimates from earlier 33/34.5 mmscmd to 35/36.8 mmscmd for FY25E/FY26E, respectively. Consequently, we raise our Ebitda/PAT estimates by 8.8%/7.6% for FY25E and 9%/7.4% for FY26E. We forecast Ebitda/PAT to see a decline of 28%/23% over FY24-FY26E led by a recent 47% tariff cut. On the back of higher Ebitda estimates, we are raising our SOTP-based target price to Rs 364 (earlier Rs 327), valuing its core business at Rs 142, its 54% stake in Gujarat Gas at Rs 205 (with 50% holding discount) and its investment in GIGL and Sabarmati Gas at Rs 17. We continue to maintain Hold on the stock. .Click on the attachment to read the full report:.Gujarat Gas Q1 Results Review - Morbi Volumes Surge; CNG Expected To Be Growth Driver: Dolat Capital .DISCLAIMERThis report is authored by an external party. NDTV Profit does not vouch for the accuracy of its contents nor is responsible for them in any way. The contents of this section do not constitute investment advice. For that you must always consult an expert based on your individual needs. The views expressed in the report are that of the author entity and do not represent the views of NDTV Profit..Users have no license to copy, modify, or distribute the content without permission of the Original Owner.

Gujarat State Petronet Q1 Review - Result Beats Expectations On Higher Volumes; Maintain Hold: Systematix

Sharp tariff cut of 47% would continue to dent the company’s financial growth in the coming years while volume growth is also likely to remain volatile, says the brokerage.

NDTV Profit

NDTV Profit

Follow Us

DOWNLOAD THE APP

Gujarat State Petronet Q1 Review - Result Beats Expectations On Higher Volumes; Maintain Hold: Systematix

Sharp tariff cut of 47% would continue to dent the company’s financial growth in the coming years while volume growth is also likely to remain volatile, says the brokerage.

Choose a plan

Follow Us

DOWNLOAD THE APP