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IDBI Capital Report
Greenpanel Industries Ltd. Q4 FY24 revenue was broadly in line with our estimate, while Ebitda was significantly below our expectations. Sales decreased by 10% YoY to Rs 3.9 billion and Ebitda fell by 33% YoY to Rs 513 million.
Ebitda margin contracted by 433 basis points YoY to 12.9% on elevated wood prices and increased competitive intensity. Net profit declined by 57% YoY to Rs 298 million. For FY25, Greenpanel has guided for 15% volume growth in medium density fibre segment and expect Ebitda margin to remain above 16% unless it is forced to cut MDF prices.
We revise downwards our FY25 and FY26 EPS estimates by 31% and 21%, respectively.
We now value the stock at price-to-earning ratio of 20 times FY26 EPS and derive a target price of Rs 371 (earlier Rs 472) and maintain our Buy rating on the stock.
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