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ICICI Securities Report
Street's ignorance to sustained weakness in cement prices has proven to be bliss for cement stocks (at least so far in FY25). Even as several attempts to hike prices during Q1 FY25 remained inefficacious (highlighting stiff competition), many a cement stocks scaled new peaks, basking in the unfounded glory of rising consolidation.
Meanwhile, tracking the 2–3% QoQ drop in prices amidst meek demand (flat YoY; general elections' impact), Q1 FY25 is turning out to be a tough pill to swallow – Ebitda for our coverage is likely to stay flat YoY.
Traditionally, the monsoon quarter leaves little wiggle room to raise prices; Q2 FY25 shall hardly be an exception. Our expectation of continued price volatility casts a cloud over FY25E earnings forecast.
While there may be a ‘long road' to witness the virtues of consolidation (myth-like so far), we prefer playing the same through Ambuja and ACC (our top picks). We remain neutral on the sector.
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