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ICICI Securities Report
The festive season has taken a toll on cement prices in November 2023. Lean demand has led to roll-back of the hikes undertaken in September 2023 (in east India) and October 2023 (in all other regions).
While the roll-back is partial (nearly ~50% of the hike) in east and south India; in other regions, prices are back to their pre-hike levels (of Sep-23).
With high inventory and incumbents' quest to regain lost volumes, outlook for Dec-23 does not appear rosy either.
Street may well have to be content with ~2.5% QoQ hike for Q3 FY24 versus ~5–6% expected earlier.
With the revised QoQ price rise expectation being within our conservative estimates, we do not foresee any impact on earnings as of now.
With fundamental sector concerns (high capacity addition/volatile pricing) being intact, we prefer a Neutral sector stance.
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