Cipla To Sun Pharma: gRevlimid To Drive Q1 Sales Growth For Pharma, Say Analysts

Indian pharmaceutical companies are expected to see sales growth in the first quarter of fiscal 2025, as analysts foresee contributions from both domestic and exports businesses to help revenues. Analysts are optimistic, projecting continued outperformance from major players, particularly driven by higher gRevlimid revenues.

Torrent Pharmaceuticals Ltd.'s revenue jumped 10.3% in the first quarter of fiscal 2025. While, its Ebitda margin stood at 32%. This performance surpassed DAM Capital Advisors Ltd.'s anticipation of an 8% year-on-year revenue growth, primarily driven by a 10% YoY increase in its domestic branded business. Kotak Institutional Equities had forecasted 14% YoY and 7% quarter-on-quarter growth in overall sales for Torrent in the three months ended June.

Here's what brokerages expect for the pharma sector in first quarter of fiscal 2025.

Overall sales and Ebitda growth in Q1 FY25 is expected to be at 12% and 14% year-on-year, respectively. This growth is driven by continued traction in most markets and strategic inorganic expansions, all within a favorable US pricing environment, Kotak said.

Kotak Institutional Equities expects 9% YoY growth in Cipla Ltd.'s domestic sales, supported by an 8% increase in its organic business and contributions from Sanofi's CNS portfolio.

Despite some impact from changes in its trade generics distribution model, Cipla is expected to see an 8% year on year revenue growth in export sales, according to DAM Capital. Overall, Cipla’s Q1 FY25 sales are projected to grow by 7% year on year and 10% quarter-on-quarter.

Kotak expects overall Ebitda to grow 4% year-on-year to Rs 1,560 crore, with Ebitda margin declining by 60 bps to 23% during the quarter.

Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd. is projected to see 9% YoY growth in overall sales, with similar expectations from both Kotak and DAM Capital. The domestic business is anticipated to deliver a 10% YoY growth.

On the Ebitda front, Kotak estimates 5% YoY growth and 13% QoQ to Rs 3,500 crore, with Ebitda margin improvement of 110 bps QoQ to 26.9%.

Kotak expects JB Chemicals And Pharmaceuticals Ltd.'s organic domestic sales to grow by 11% YoY, with additional boost from the Novartis portfolio, leading to an overall domestic sales growth of 17% YoY.

JB’s total sales are expected to grow by 9% YoY and 13% QoQ.

Kotak predicts a 12% YoY growth in Mankind Pharma Ltd.'s domestic formulations segment. After a subdued period for its over-the-counter business, a partial recovery is expected, leading to an 8% YoY sales growth for the segment.

Ebitda is expected to grow 12% YoY and 24% QoQ to Rs 730 crore, with Ebitda margin at 24.8%, expanding by 60 bps quarter-on-quarter.

Divi's Laboratories Ltd. is set to report an impressive 36% YoY growth in sales, driven by a low base from the previous year, according to Kotak.

Biocon Ltd. is expected to see 3% QoQ growth in its core biosimilar sales, Kotak said.

Axis Securities Ltd. expects Lupin Ltd. to achieve a 10.3% YoY sales growth in Q1 FY25, although quarter-on-quarter growth is expected to be a modest 3.3%.

Improvement in Ebitda margins is likely, due to lower raw material costs.

Following a subdued fourth quarter in the previous fiscal, Aurobindo Pharma Ltd.'s US sales (excluding gRevlimid) are expected to grow by 6% quarter-on-quarter to $429 million, with a 12% QoQ growth in US injectables sales, according to Kotak.

Cipla's US sales are projected to be $236 million, a 4% QoQ increase, driven by higher market shares in Albuterol and Lanreotide, along with gRevlimid sales, Kotak said.

Kotak expects Dr. Reddy's North America base business (excluding Revlimid) to grow by 1% quarter-on-quarter to approximately $295 million, maintaining stable market shares.

Kotak projects Lupin’s US sales to be $220 million, a 5% quarter-on-quarter increase, boosted by higher gSpiriva sales and the launch of gMyrbetriq and gProlensa.

Sun Pharma’s US sales are projected to be $511 million, a 7% quarter on quarter growth, with notable contributions from gRevlimid and gPentasa, Kotak said.

Kotak expects gRevlimid sales to be slightly higher than fourth quarter of fiscal 2024 for Cipla and Dr. Reddy's. For Aurobindo Pharma, it expects sales to match the previous quarter.

Cipla's gRevlimid sales are projected to be $28 million. While, Dr. Reddy's' is expected to stand at $110 million, compared to $100 million in Q4 FY24, Kotak said.

Aurobindo Pharma's gRevlimid sales are expected to be $27 million, consistent with Q4 FY24 figures, it said.

DAM Capital projects Sun Pharma's revlimid sales to be between $40-50 million.