Jharkhand, Maharashtra Assembly Elections Likely To Follow National Trends, Says Ruchir Sharma

The upcoming assembly elections in Jharkhand and Maharashtra could produce results in line with the pattern seen in these states during the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, according to author and global investor Ruchir Sharma. In an interview with India Today, Sharma noted that Indian elections see a recurring pattern emerge when state elections follow the Lok Sabha elections within a year.

"In Indian elections, a recurring pattern often emerges: when a state election takes place within 6 to 12 months of Lok Sabha polls, the same voting trends are frequently reflected in the state results,” he said.

In the Lok Sabha elections held earlier this year, the Maha Vikas Aghadi in Maharashtra, comprising Congress, Shiv Sena (UBT) and NCP (SC) outperformed the Mahayuti alliance that consists of BJP, Shiv Sena and NCP. The MVA won 31 out of 48 seats in Maharashtra, while the Mahayuti alliance got only 17 seats. In Jharkhand, the NDA alliance led by BJP secured nine out of 14 seats, while the JMM-Congress alliance got only five.

These trends might persist in assembly elections in both the states, according to Sharma. This could mean the return of the MVA government in Maharashtra, and the BJP ousting the Hemant Soren-led government in Jharkhand.

He asserted that his views were based on historical patterns, and not on recent field observations.

The author also noted that each state in India was “distinct”, and he did not believe that the momentum from the recent Haryana Assembly elections would be carried forward in the upcoming polls in Jharkhand and Maharashtra.

“I don't believe in this momentum theory. If momentum was the issue, then the BJP would have never won Haryana because the momentum was so against it. India's elections are inherently distinct, with each state’s voting behaviour influenced by regional issues, regardless of the national sentiment,” he said.

The BJP had seen a stellar win in the Haryana Assembly elections earlier this year, despite expectations that the party would not be able to secure a majority in the state.

Maharashtra and Jharkhand are the last two states going to the polls in 2024. Voting in Jharkhand will be held in two phases, on Nov. 13 and Nov. 20. Maharashtra will vote in a single phase on Nov. 20. Results for both elections will be announced on Nov. 23.