India's Population To Peak At 1.7 Billion In 2060s, Will Remain Largest Nation Throughout Century, Says UN

United Nations has projected that India's population will peak around 1.7 billion in the early 2060s before declining by 12%. Despite this decline, India will remain the world's most populous country throughout the century.

The 'World Population Prospects 2024' report, released on Thursday, indicates global population will continue to grow over the next 50-60 years, peaking at about 10.3 billion people in the mid-2080s, up from 8.2 billion in 2024. After reaching its peak, global population is expected to gradually decline to 10.2 billion by the end of the century.

India, which overtook China as the world's most populous nation last year, will continue to hold this position until 2100.

"The population of India, which is expected to remain the world's largest throughout the century, will likely decline by 12 per cent after reaching its peak in the early 2060s at about 1.7 billion," the report, published by the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA), Population Division, stated.

According to the report, India's population in 2024, estimated at 1.45 billion, will peak at 1.69 billion in 2054. By the end of the century in 2100, India's population is projected to decline to 1.5 billion, yet it will still be the most populous nation on Earth.

"India is currently the largest country in the world in terms of population, and it is projected to stay so throughout the century. The population is currently estimated at 1.45 billion, and it's supposed to increase further to 1.69 billion. It's supposed to peak around the 2060s in size and then it starts to slightly decline. So by the end of the century, India is projected to be around 1.5 billion, but still the largest country in the world by a large margin," Clare Menozzi, senior population affairs officer at UN DESA, said at a press conference.

The report also highlighted that China's population, currently 1.41 billion in 2024, will fall to 1.21 billion in 2054 and further decline to 633 million by 2100.

"It is anticipated that China, the country currently with the world's second-largest population, will likely experience the largest absolute population loss between 2024 and 2054," the report said, adding China would be followed by Japan and Russia.

"Longer-range population projections are more uncertain for China," it added. "However, due to its large size and sustained low level of fertility, China is also likely to record the largest population decline of any country through the end of the century. By 2100, China is projected to have lost more than half of its current population and to have returned to a population size comparable to that recorded in the late 1950s."

John Wilmoth, director of the population division at UN DESA, explained the significantly low population projection for China, stating, "It really relates to the level of fertility that's observed currently in China. The current number is right around one birth per woman on average over a lifetime. Given that you need 2.1 births to maintain the current population without migration, if fertility levels remain at such a low level, even if they come up slightly, any fertility level if it's below two, or especially below 1.8 or below 1.5, you're really getting into low levels of fertility and it produces a long-run decline that's quite significant. And that's true for China. It's true for some other countries in this analysis."