Monsoon & El Niño Update: IMD Predicts Normal To Above Normal Rainfall in July
Below-normal rainfall is expected in many areas of the northwest, northeast, and southeast peninsular India.
on June 30, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) provided a major update on the rainfall activity for the month of July where they have mentioned that it is expected to be normal to above normal across the country.
It is likely to be above normal in central India, south and east India, and parts of Northeast and Northwest India. The monthly rainfall over the country is most likely to be normal (94 to 106 percent) and within positive side of the normal.
Below-normal rainfall is expected in many areas of the northwest, northeast, and southeast peninsular India.
In July 2023, there is a likelihood of normal to above-normal maximum temperatures over most parts of the country, except for some areas of northwest and peninsular India where below-normal maximum temperatures are expected.
Additionally, there is a likelihood of normal to above-normal minimum temperatures over most parts of the country, except for some areas of northwest India where below-normal minimum temperatures are expected.
IMD On El Niño Possibility
The Indian Meteorological Department in its press release also shared an update on the prevalent El Nino conditions, it stated that 'There are high probabilities for the development of El Niño conditions over the equatorial Pacific Ocean and positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions over the Indian Ocean during July to September 2023.'
'As sea surface temperature (SST) conditions over the Pacific and the Indian Oceans are known to have strong influence on Indian monsoon, IMD is carefully monitoring the evolution of sea surface conditions over these Ocean basins.'
On June 8, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) had declared El Niño conditions. This climate phenomenon has dramatic effects on global weather patterns and after 3 consecutive years of La Lina, EL Nino has appeared.
On June 22, Nasa Earth's Twitter handle further confirmed the arrival of El Niño by showcasing the world map highlighting the sea surface height anamolies.
Forecasters predict that El Niño conditions will become stronger during the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2023-2024. They estimate a 60 percent chance of a moderate strength El Niño and a 56 percent chance of a strong El Niño.
El Niño Effect On Indian Monsoon
El Niño is a climatic phenomenon that occurs when there is an abnormal warming of the surface waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, which can impact weather patterns globally. It can disrupt the normal ocean and atmospheric circulation, resulting in unusual weather patterns in many parts of the world.
El Niño is when trade winds weaken, causing warm water to push back east, impacting global weather patterns. The IMD explained that only 40% of El Niño years have resulted in normal or above-normal monsoons. The question is whether 60% of El Niño years have resulted in below-normal monsoons and should also be considered.
The IMD will provide similar rainfall predictions for August at the end of July 2023.
