Trade Setup For July 15: Nifty Bulls Likely To Keep Command Even As Budget Nears

Despite the markets appearing overbought, analysts expect the bulls to remain in control as the Union Budget 2024–25 approaches. The Nifty hit a new record high on Friday at 24,592.2 and almost tested the target of 24,600.

The key support zone will be 24,400–24,350, and as long as the index is trading above that, bullish sentiment is likely to continue, according to Amol Athawale, vice president of technical research at Kotak Securities.

Hrishikesh Yedve of Asit C. Mehta Investment Interrmediates Ltd. suggests a buy-on-dip strategy until the index breaks through the 24,600–24,620 resistance.

The same playbook can be applied for the Nifty Bank as long as the index holds above 51,750. On the upside, 52,800 and 53,000 will serve as strong resistance levels, Yedve said.

As the budget session approaches, the market is optimistic that the government will maintain its focus on infrastructure, defence, railways and green energy, according to Krishna Appala, senior research analyst at Capitalmind Research Pvt. "As of now, the market is not factoring in any negative surprises in the form of income tax changes, LTCG, STCG, STT, etc. Any changes in these areas will have a short-term negative impact on the market," he said.

GIFT Nifty was trading 31 points, or 0.13%, higher at 24,634 as of 06:34 a.m.

The Nifty July futures are up 0.6% to 24,529 at a premium of 26.85 points, with open interest up 2.03%.

Nifty Bank July futures are down 0.13% to 52,372 at a premium of 93.1 points, while its open interest is down 4.24%.

The open interest distribution for the Nifty 50 July 18 expiry series indicated most activity at 25,000 call strikes, with 24,000 put strikes having maximum open interest.

For the Bank Nifty options July 16 expiry, the maximum call open interest was at 54,000 and the maximum put open interest was at 50,000.

Overseas investors became net buyers of Indian equities after a day on Friday.

Foreign portfolio investors mopped up stocks worth Rs 4,022 crore, while domestic institutional investors turned net sellers for the fourth session and offloaded equities worth Rs 1,652 crore, according to provisional data from the National Stock Exchange.

Indian benchmark indices rebounded strongly on Friday, reversing a two-day decline, boosted by a surge in information technology stocks following Tata Consultancy Services' better-than-expected quarterly earnings.

The NSE Nifty 50 rose by 186.20 points or 0.77% to close at 24,502.15, while the S&P BSE Sensex gained 622.00 points or 0.78% to end at 80,519.34.

The week marked the strongest weekly gain in seven months for the benchmarks. The Nifty FMCG emerged as the top performer, followed by IT. Metal the led losses.

The broader markets underperformed the benchmark indices, as the BSE MidCap and the SmallCap ended 0.22% and 0.13% down, respectively.

On the BSE, nine sectors rose, and 11 sectors declined. The BSE IT rose the most and Realty fell the most.

• HCL Technologies: The IT major reported a 6.6% sequential growth in net profit at Rs 4,259 crore, while revenue declined 1.6% to Rs 28,057 crore. The company affirmed its projections for revenue growth in constant currency terms and operating margin for the financial year ending March 2025.

• Ireda: The pure-play clean energy financier reported a 30% increase in its net profit on a yearly basis, for the first quarter of the financial year ending March 2025. Revenue advanced 32% to Rs 1,511 crore.

• Sunteck Realty: The real estate developer reported pre-sales at Rs 502 crore, up 30% year-on-year, and collection at Rs 342 crore, up 19% year-on-year in the first quarter.

• RVNL: The construction arm of the Ministry of Railways received a letter of acceptance from Central Railway for a Rs 133 crore-project in Maharashtra.

• Piramal Pharma: The US Food and Drug Administration conducted a pre-approval Inspection of its PPDS Ahmedabad facility, which closed with zero observations. The move will enable access to high-end analytical capabilities for customers for their clinical and commercial batches from an FDA-approved site.

• HDFC Asset Management Co., HDFC Life Insurance Co. and Jio Financial Services Ltd. are among the companies that are expected to report their quarterly results on July 15.

Most stocks in the Asia-Pacific region were trading higher following the assassination attempt of the former US President Donald Trump marking yet another volatile move to the US election.

Scrips in Australia climbed by nearly a percent while South Korea's marginally increased. The S&P ASX 200 was 70 points or 0.88% higher at 8,029 while the Kospi was five points or 0.17% down at 2,861.8 as of 07:18 a.m.

During a campaign rally in Pennsylvania, on Saturday, Trump was shot in the ear by a 20-year-old who was later killed by the US Secret Service. His campaign later informed that the former president was fine and would attend the Republican National Convention next week.

Following this episode, gold, Bitcoin and the dollar rose on reinforced bets that his chances of winning the presidential election have increased.

Meanwhile, the stocks in the US closed higher on Friday on increased expectations of rate cuts this year by the Federal Reserve as shown in the latest economic data. The S&P 500 Index and Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.55% and 0.63%, respectively as of Friday. Dow Jones Industrial Average also rose 0.62%.

Brent crude was trading 0.38% lower at $84.71 a barrel. Gold was 0.14% down at $2,408.17 an ounce.

• U.S. Dollar Index at 104.28

• U.S. 10-year bond yield at 4.18%

• Brent crude down 0.38% at $84.71 per barrel

• Bitcoin was up 1.22% at $60,848.77

• Gold spot was down 0.14% at $2,408.17

The Indian rupee closed stronger against the dollar on Friday as the US inflation broadly cooled in June, strengthening bets for an earlier rate cut by the Federal Reserve.

The local currency appreciated 3 paise to close at Rs 83.53.