Oil Rebounds 10% From Historic Rout as Lawmakers Weigh Stimulus

(Bloomberg) -- Oil bounced back from its biggest plunge in 29 years on hopes the U.S. government will intervene to shield against the fallout of the coronavirus and a producer battle for market share.

Futures jumped more than 10% in New York, the most since September, after Monday’s historic 25% slump. U.S. President Donald Trump vowed “substantial” economic measures to combat the coronavirus’ impact. He’s also pitched economic relief for the travel and hospitality sector, while some Republican senators have suggested a federal bailout for the shale industry.

“Markets are rallying on signs there may be fiscal stimulus by the White House,” said Rebecca Babin, a senior equity trader at CIBC Private Wealth Management. “It’s all still so fragile and reactionary right now though.”

The Trump administration’s willingness to provide stimulus comes as the collapse in oil prices spurred an indiscriminate sell-off in markets already reeling from the coronavirus. The U.S. has ramped up its response to the market-share war waged by Russia and Saudi Arabia as the collapse of the OPEC+ alliance threatens the American shale industry.

The U.S. suspended a planned sale of 12 million barrels of oil from the nation’s emergency reserves. Trump also spoke with Mohammed bin Salman by phone before the Saudi crown prince escalated the oil-price war Tuesday by increasing production, according to two people familiar with the call.

“The U.S. getting involved is a positive,” said Mike Hiley, head of OTC energy trading with LPS Partners. “It’s clear they’re concerned this price move threatens the viability of U.S. shale industry.”

West Texas Intermediate crude for April delivery rose $3.23 to settle at $34.36 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the largest jump since the attack on Saudi oil facilities in September last year.

Brent for May settlement advanced 8.3%, or $2.86, to settle at $37.22 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.

State-owned Saudi Aramco said it will boost production by 12.3 million barrels a day in April, exceeding the kingdom’s maximum sustainable rate of production, after slashing its official crude prices over the weekend.

Russia’s largest producer said it will ramp up output next month, though Energy Minister Alexander Novak repeated that further cooperation with OPEC remains possible.

The unprecedented supply-demand shock poses a serious threat to the U.S. shale boom with the potential to push crude prices to 2016 and 2008 lows in the short-term, according to IHS Markit.

The turmoil also reverberated across time-spreads and options. Brent for prompt delivery collapsed against later shipments. The structure, known as contango, is a sign of bearishness and oversupply and makes it profitable for physical traders to buy crude and put it into storage.

Meanwhile, the American Petroleum Institute is said to have reported that U.S. crude stockpiles increased 6.41 million barrels last week. The median forecast of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg before a government report Wednesday shows analysts are predicting a build of 1.7 million barrels.

--With assistance from James Thornhill and Dan Murtaugh.

To contact the reporters on this story: Grant Smith in London at gsmith52@bloomberg.net;Elizabeth Low in Singapore at elow39@bloomberg.net;Jackie Davalos in New York at jdavalos10@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: David Marino at dmarino4@bloomberg.net, Pratish Narayanan, Carlos Caminada

©2020 Bloomberg L.P.