Trade Setup For Nov. 14: Nifty Sees Resistance At 23,800, Analysts Caution Against Further Downside

The NSE Nifty 50's immediate support level stands at 23,500, with further support near 23,300–23,200, while the key resistance is positioned around 23,800, followed by a stronger resistance at 23,850, according to analysts.

"We are of the view that the current market texture is weak but oversold," Shrikant Chouhan, head of equity research at Kotak Securities, said. "Hence, we could expect one quick intraday pullback rally from the current levels."

Chouhan emphasised that the 200-day simple moving average or the 23,500/77,500 levels would serve as a crucial support zone, above which a technical bounce back could lead the index to 23,800–23,850/78,300–78,500. "However, a decisive breach below 23,500/77,500 could see the index slide to 23,380–23,350/77,200–77,000," he said.

Further technical analysis indicates that the Nifty broke below last week's low of 23,816, maintaining levels below 23,800, which triggered a fresh breakdown, according to Hrishikesh Yedve, assistant vice president of technical and derivatives research at Asit C Mehta Investment Intermediates Ltd.

The index is testing its 200-day-exponential-moving-average support at around 23,540. A strong break below 23,500 can push the index further down to 23,300–23,200, where trend line support is positioned, according to Yedve.

Indian benchmark indices approached key correction levels from their peak on Sept. 27, according to Ameya Ranadive, senior technical analyst at StoxBox. "The surge in the inflation rate dampened hopes of a rate cut next month, adding to concerns over muted earnings and sustained FII outflow, which intensified the market’s decline," he said.

The Bank Nifty concluded the day on a negative note at 50,088 levels. "Technically, the index, on a daily scale, has formed a bearish candle and broke the short-term consolidation band of 50,500 to 52,580, indicating further weakness," Yedve said. "Thus, any bounce near 50,500–50,550 will act as stiff resistance for Bank Nifty."

"However, Bank Nifty established support near its 200-DEMA, which is at 49,900, while the previous support base is near 49,650. Overall, Bank Nifty seems weak in the short term as long as the index remains below 50,600," Yedve said.

Overseas investors remained net sellers of Indian equities for the 33rd consecutive session on Wednesday, while domestic institutional investors stayed net buyers.

Foreign portfolio investors sold stocks worth Rs 2,502.58 crore and DIIs mopped up stocks worth approximately Rs 6,145.24 crore, according to provisional data from the National Stock Exchange.

Nifty November futures are down by 1.1% to 23,658 at a premium of 99 points, with the open interest up by 2.8%.

The open interest distribution for the Nifty 50 Nov. 14 expiry series indicated most activity at 26,900 and maximum put open interest at 23,000.

The NSE Nifty 50 and BSE Sensex extended losses to the fifth straight session on Wednesday. The Nifty ended 324.40 points or 1.36% down at 23,559.05, the lowest level since June 24. The Sensex closed 984.23 points or 1.25% lower at 77,690.95, the lowest since June 24.

The market–cap of Nifty 50 companies fell Rs 2.5 lakh crore to Rs 188.07 lakh crore as the index entered correction zone, as the index ended at over four–month low for the second session in a row. The benchmark large–cap gauge declined over 10% from its life high of 26,277.35.

Wipro: The company and Sahara International Petrochemical completed implementation of SAP S/4HANA.

Indian Overseas Bank: The company to hike MCLR by 5 bps for one year tenure effective Nov. 15.

Tata Communications: The company in pact with Transaction Solutions to sell arm's stake in wholly owned unit Tata Communications Payment Solutions.

Tata Power: The company’s arm commissioned 126 MW floating solar projects in Madhya Pradesh.

Inox Green: The company approved Demerger of Power Evacuation Business.

Deepak Nitrite: The arm Deepak Chem tech to manufacture polycarbonate resins with an investment of Rs 5,000 crore. The arm to sell polycarbonate technology license and stade assets to arm.

Cipla: US FDA issued 8 observations to company’s Bengaluru manufacturing facility.

Varun Beverages: The company has approved floor price of QIP at Rs 594.56 per share.

Stocks in the Asia-Pacific region advanced in early trade on Thursday as the latest firm inflation print in the US calls for rates easing by the Federal Reserve. Bitcoin briefly topped the $93,000 mark.

Equity benchmarks in Japan and Australia led to gains during the session opening. The Nikkei was 197 points, or 0.55%, higher at 38,948, while the S&P ASX 200 was up 39 points, or 0.47%, at 8,231 as of 5:35 a.m.

The so-called core consumer price index in the US— which excludes food and energy costs—increased 0.3% for a third month and 3.3% from a year ago. The fact that this underlying US inflation was steady in October highlighted the continued pressures that Fed officials face in anchoring the price targets.

Following the inflation print, Wall Street rose but ended mixed, while Treasury yields and the dollar fell. According to Bloomberg News, traders marked up the odds of a December rate cut to around 70% from about 60% prior to the release.

The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.02% and 0.11%, respectively, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite declined 0.26%.

South Korean money supply and Thai consumer confidence will be the key data sets to focus in Asia region on Thursday.

Brent crude was trading 0.54% higher at $72.28 a barrel as of 6:00 a.m. IST. West Texas Intermediate was down 0.48% at $68.10. 

• US Dollar Index at 106.48

• US 10-year bond yield at 4.46%.

• Brent crude up 0.54% at $72.28 per barrel.

• Bitcoin was up 1.62% at $90,072.38

• Gold spot was up 0.02% at $2,573.48

The Indian rupee closed flat at 84.38 against the US dollar on Wednesday, holding near its all-time low of 84.4162. It closed at 84.39 on Tuesday.

This comes as the Reserve Bank of India continues its efforts to stabilise the currency, according to Amit Pabari, managing director of CR Forex Advisors, and Anil Bhansali, executive director at Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP.