Trade Setup For Nov. 19: Nifty 50 Set To Recover Towards 23,700-23,800 Levels
The Nifty 50 is set for a potential rebound after its longest losing streak since February 2023, with analysts pointing to critical support near 23,300.
Although the overall (Nifty 50) chart setup remains weak, the selling pressure appears to have eased following a prolonged correction, according to Rupak De, senior technical analyst at LKP Securities.
“In the short term, the index may recover towards 23,700–23,800. On the downside, support is positioned at 23,200–23,300," he said.
The 50-week simple moving average for Nifty 50 is placed near 23,300 levels, which will serve as short-term support for the index, according to Hrishikesh Yedve, assistant vice president of Technical and Derivatives Research at Asit C. Mehta Investment Interrmediates Ltd.
Hrishikesh Yedve said that overall, the short-term trend is down, but we expect the Nifty index to consolidate in the narrow band of 23,300-23,600.
Hrishikesh Yedve highlighted that the 200-daily exponential moving average support for Bank Nifty is placed near 49,910, and if it manages to respect 49,900, then it could witness a pullback move towards 50,500-50,600 levels, where the short-term trendline resistance is placed.
“If the index sustains above 50,600 levels, the relief rally could extend to 51,000 levels. Overall, the short-term trend is down, but if the Bank Nifty holds above 49,900, a pullback rally could be possible,” he added.
Market Recap
Benchmark equity indices extended their fall for another session, with the Nifty marking its longest losing streak—eight sessions—since Feb. 28, 2023, and the Sensex recording a fourth session of decline.
The indices dropped despite positive economic news, such as Moody's growth forecast for 2024 and CLSA's shift to an overweight position on India, citing potential risks from renewed trade tensions with the U.S. under President-elect Donald Trump.
Nifty ended 0.3% or 78.9 points lower at 23,453.80, and the Sensex ended 0.3% or 241.3 points lower at 77,339.01.
FII/ DII Activity
Overseas investors remained net sellers of Indian equities for the 35th consecutive session on Monday, while domestic institutional investors stayed net buyers.
Foreign portfolio investors sold stocks worth Rs 1,403.40 crore and the domestic institutional investors mopped up stocks worth approximately Rs 2,330.56 crore.
F&O Cues
The Nifty November futures were down 0.38% to 23,513 at a premium of 60 points, with the open interest down by 1%.
The open interest distribution for the Nifty 50 Nov. 21 expiry series indicated most activity at 24,000 call strikes, with the 21,800 put strikes having maximum open interest.
Major Stocks In News
Oil and Natural Gas Corp.: The company "ONGC NTPC GREEN" has been formed as a 50:50 joint venture between ONGC Green, a wholly owned subsidiary of ONGC, and NGEL, a wholly owned subsidiary of NTPC Ltd.
Zee Entertainment Enterprises: Punit Goenka, managing director and chief executive officer of the company has resigned from the position of managing director. The board appoints him as CEO.
Reliance Power: Reliance Power and Reliance Infrastructure have reshaped their boards by promoting four senior executives to the positions of directors.
Global Cues
Stocks in the Asia-Pacific region gained on Tuesday taking cues from overnight gains on Wall Street while the focus was on the upcoming Nvidia Inc. earnings and the US President-elect Donald Trump’s new administration.
Equity benchmarks in Japan and Australia gained the most during the session opening. Futures in Tokyo and Hong Kong rose while US contracts remained steady. The Nikkei was 182 points, or 0.48%, higher at 38,417, while the S&P ASX 200 was up 56 points, or 0.56%, at 8,346 as of 5:35 a.m.
The stocks in the US closed higher on Monday led by gains in the teach-heavy Nasdaq as Tesla Inc. jumped 5.6% on a favorable news with a new Trump policy. According to news reports, Trump's team informed advisors that they intend to prioritise the Transportation Department's federal framework for fully self-driving vehicles.
The Nasdaq 100 outperformed after its longest rout since January. The S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite rose 0.39% and 0.60%, respectively, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.13%.
Bonds rose across the US curve, while all eyes will be on Nvidia's quarterly report due Wednesday.
Crude oil prices remained mixed with the Brent crude trading 3.18% higher at $73.30 a barrel as of 6:00 a.m. IST, and the West Texas Intermediate down 0.33% at $68.93.
Key Levels
US Dollar Index at 106.27
US 10-year bond yield at 4.41%.
Brent crude up 3.18% at $73.30 per barrel.
Bitcoin was down 0.73% at $90,700.69
Gold spot was up 0.02% at $2,612.46
Money Market
The Indian rupee closed little changed on Monday at Rs 84.39, according to Bloomberg data.
The currency had opened flat against the US dollar on Monday amid persistent pressure driven by continued FII outflows. It had closed at Rs 84.40 on Thursday.
