Oil Soars Above $80 As Traders Price in Potential Iran Reprisal
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(Bloomberg) -- Oil capped its biggest daily gain since October as fears of a potential Iranian response to last month’s assassination of a Hamas leader in Tehran outweighed a dip in broader markets.
West Texas Intermediate crude soared $3.22 to settle above $80 a barrel. Tehran reiterated Sunday its determination to punish Israel for the killing, as the US shored up naval and air forces in the Middle East. The US benchmark crossed above its 200-day moving average, a move that supercharged upward momentum.
“Algorithmic trend followers still hold dry powder in Brent crude, suggesting aggressions from Iranian soil could still spark additional buying activity from this cohort,” said Dan Ghali, a commodity strategist at TD Securities.
The gains signal a possible shift in money managers’ positioning. Last week, macroeconomic gloom prompted hedge funds and algorithmic traders to roll back their net-long wager in ICE Brent to the smallest since the data was first published in 2011. Bullish bets on gasoline and diesel in the US were also at multiyear lows.
Traders will be looking to market reports this week for more clarity on supply and demand balances. OPEC on Monday trimmed forecasts for global oil demand this year and next. The International Energy Agency will publish its monthly outlook Tuesday, which will be followed by US inflation data Wednesday.
--With assistance from Yongchang Chin.
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