Lok Sabha Election 2024: Tamil Nadu To Decide On BJP's Push In Phase One

Tamil Nadu will vote in a single phase on April 19, kicking off the 44-day Lok Sabha elections to elect a new national government. The state has the fifth largest number of Lok Sabha constituencies (39 seats), behind Uttar Pradesh (80), Maharashtra (48), West Bengal (42) and Bihar (40).

The Bharatiya Janata Party, eager to expand its footprint in south India and shed its 'North Indian, Hindi heartland-centric' tag, is pulling out all stops to make an impact in the Lok Sabha elections in Tamil Nadu.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited the state several times this year in an effort to appeal to the state's electorate, which has for decades swung between either of the two Dravidian parties: the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam or the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam.

What makes Tamil Nadu interesting this time is the nature of alliances and churn in the state's politics.

India's second-most industrialised state, which contributes 8.8% to the national GDP, has long been dominated by the two Dravidian parties. Centred around the same ideological core of Dravidian sub-nationalism, self-respect and anti-caste, Tamil linguistic pride and assertive federalism, the two regional parties have historically aligned with either of the national parties in larger coalitions at both the state and union levels.

The AIADMK walked out of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance last year, miffed over the national partner's state unit chief, K. Annamalai. In the last two general elections, the parties fought together under the NDA fold, with AIADMK as the senior partner. The BJP is now attempting to draw voters by riding on the years-long leadership tussle within the AIADMK since the death of former Chief Minister and stalwart J. Jayalalithaa.

On the other side is the Secular Progressive Alliance led by the DMK. It counts the Congress and several left-wing parties as members. Chief Minister MK Stalin, a fierce critic of the Modi government over issues ranging from tax devolution to ideology, is hoping to repeat the landslide the coalition achieved in 2019, when it bagged 38 out of 39 seats in Tamil Nadu. The alliance also won the 2021 assembly elections, defeating the AIADMK-led regime of 10 years.

AIADMK

Formerly led by the late Jayalalitha, the AIADMK secured 37 seats in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, with a vote share of 44.27%. The seat count was reduced to one in 2019, and its vote share dropped to 18.48%.

DMK

The DMK faced a drubbing in 2014 as it failed to win any seats in Tamil Nadu yet scored a vote share of 23.57%. Fortunes turned the next election, when it bagged all 23 seats it contested in an alliance and garnered 32.76% of the votes.

Congress

In 2014, the grand old party was routed in the state, just as it was nationwide in the first Modi wave. The following election, it managed to increase its vote share from 4.31% to 12.76% (under the DMK alliance) and won eight seats.

BJP

The BJP secured one seat in the 2014 Lok Sabha election and recorded a vote share of 5.56%. It failed to win any constituency in 2019 (fought in alliance with AIADMK), and its vote share dropped to 3.66%.

SPA (INDIA bloc)

In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the DMK is fighting for 21 seats and its ally Congress for nine. The rest will be contested by left-wing parties and smaller parties like the Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi, Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, Indian Union Muslim League, and Kongunadu Makkal Desiya Katchi.

AIADMK-led alliance

The principal opposition party in the state will contest 32 seats, while the rest will be fought by allies Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam, founded by actor-politician Vijayakanth, Puthiya Tamilagam and the Social Democratic Party of India.

NDA

The BJP has fielded candidates for 23 seats, while allies Pattali Makkal Katchi has 10, Tamil Maanila Congress (Moopanar) has three, and Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam has two. The party is also backing former CM and ousted AIADMK leader O Panneerselvam, who is contesting as an independent.

• DMK’s sitting Member of Parliament and Stalin's sister Kanimozhi are again fighting from Thoothukudi in southern Tamil Nadu, facing off against the BJP's Nainar Nagendran and AIADMK's R Sivasami Velumani.

• Annamalai is contesting from Coimbatore against DMK’s Ganapathy, a former mayor of the city. The former IPS officer has been aggressive with his plans to expand the BJP's electoral footprint and has often locked horns with both Dravidian parties.

• Union Minister of State L Murugan is the BJP's candidate from Nilgiris against DMK’s A Raja, a former Union Telecom Minister. Lokesh Tamilselvan will contest on an AIADMK ticket.

• Panneerselvam is making his Lok Sabha debut from Ramanathapuram, with hopes to regain political relevance after being ousted from the Edappadi Palaniswami-led AIADMK. The latter has named Jayaperumal as its nominee.

• DMK MP Dayanidhi Maran is re-contesting from the party stronghold of Chennai Central. The BJP has given a ticket to Vinoj P. Selvam, while the DMDK has fielded Parthasarathy.

• The BJP has fielded former Telangana Governor Tamilisai Soundarajan from the high-profile South Chennai constituency. She will battle out against DMK’s sitting MP, Tamizhachi Thangapandian and AIADMK’s J Jayavardhan.

• The Congress has nominated sitting MP Karti Chidambaram from Sivaganga. He will be facing the BJP’s T. Devanathan Yadav and the AIADMK’s Xavier Dass.

While the AIADMK is banking on anti-incumbency against the DMK alliance, the BJP is counting on the personal popularity of PM Modi, fatigue over Dravidian politics, and emotive issues like the "ceding" of Katchatheevu island to Sri Lanka in 1974 by the Indira Gandhi government. Of the five southern states, the BJP only has a significant presence in Karnataka and is a marginal player in Telangana.

"This election will break the illusion created by the DMK and Congress that the BJP and NDA are non-existent in Tamil Nadu. The voters will give a major boost to the NDA," Prime Minister Modi said in a recent public meeting in Tamil Nadu.

The DMK has flagged "erosion of democracy", the Union government's alleged lack of consultative federalism, and intrusion into the state government's functioning by the BJP-appointed governor as key issues. It is also projecting its welfare policies and improvement in the local economy and state finances to the voters.